大倾角煤层开采工作面飞矸运动具有复杂性、动态性和不确定性等特点，准确评估飞矸对人或设备造成的威胁等级是大倾角煤层飞矸防护设计的基础。以新疆乌鲁木齐市艾维儿沟2130煤矿25221大倾角大采高综采工作面为研究背景，基于飞矸对人或设备的伤损程度选取飞矸的速度、角速度和距工作面下端头人或设备的距离3个动态变量作为飞矸对人或设备的威胁的评判依据，采用专家知识结合工作面飞矸现场实测历史数据构建动态贝叶斯网络模型，依据维特比算法选取动态观测节点，得到飞矸沿工作面运动全过程的动态威胁等级概率。结果表明:在大倾角煤层工作面飞矸运动中，随着时间片的递增，飞矸的速度、角速度变量数值也随之增大，飞矸距离工作面下端头人或设备的距离逐渐减小，飞矸各变量所共同影响的威胁等级也随之变化。为避免飞矸灾害事故的发生，可在飞矸威胁等级较高的位置设置飞矸防护装置。理论方法与工作面现场实测下部区域设备破坏程度的情况相符合，进一步验证了本文方法的可行性。

Due to the motion of flying gangue is complicated,dynamic and uncertain in the working face of steep seam mining,accurate assessment the threat level of flying gangue to people or equipment is the basis of flying gangue protective design in steep seam mining.Based on the geological conditions and characteristics of strata behaviors of No.25221 working face in 2130 Coal Mine,Based on the damage degree of flying gangue to people or equipment,three dynamic variables of flying gangue,namely the velocity,angular velocity and the distance from the people or equipment in the lower ends of the working face were chosen as the basis for evaluating the threat of flying gangue to people or equipment,the dynamic bayesian network model was constructed by combining expert knowledge with the historical measured data of flying gangue on the working face,and the dynamic observation nodes were selected according to the viterbi algorithm,the probability of dynamic threat level of flying gangue moving along the working face was obtained.The results show that with the increase of time pieces,the numerical value of velocity and angular velocity for flying gangue increase,the distance between flying gangue and the person or equipment in lower ends of the working face decreases gradually,and the threat level jointly affected by various variables of flying gangue also changes.In order to avoid the occurrence of flying gangue accidents,protective devices can be set up at the sites where the flying gangue has a high threat level.The theoretical method is consistent with the measured damage degree of the equipment in the lower area of the working face,which further verifies the feasibility of the theoretical method.The application of the evaluation method of flying gangue threat level can provide a certain theoretical basis for the prediction and protection of flying gangue disaster.

1 动态贝叶斯网络

2 基于贝叶斯网络的飞矸威胁估计

    2.1 贝叶斯网络特征变量的选取

    2.2 贝叶斯网络基础模型的建立

    2.3 威胁等级评估流程

3 动态贝叶斯网络模型参数设定

    3.1 动态贝叶斯网络的条件概率

    3.2 动态贝叶斯网络的后验概率

    3.3 联合概率分布

4 基于维特比动态规划算法仿真分析

    4.1 飞矸运动观测节点的选取

    4.2 飞矸的威胁等级分析

5 结论