School of Economics and Finance, City College, Xi′an Jiaotong University

陕西省经济增长需求与节能减排压力之间的矛盾是亟待解决的难题。为研究陕西省能源消费碳排放量发展趋势及其影响因素,选取了陕西省2013—2022年的数据,利用STIRPAT模型和情景分析方法,探究不同发展情景下碳排放量发展的趋势。研究结果显示,陕西省现阶段碳排放增量主要来源于经济产出水平的增加,同时受到能源消费结构和产业结构的影响,能源强度的增长有显著的减排效应。经济产出、人口规模保持中等速度发展并且加速产业结构升级,优化能源消费结构,进一步降低能源强度,能够实现较好的低碳发展效果。目前陕西省减排的重点在于调整产业结构以及优化能源结构。

The contradiction between the demand for economic growth and the pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction in Shaanxi Province is a difficult problem that needs to be solved urgently. To study the development trend of carbon emissions from energy consumption in Shaanxi Province and its influencing factors,this paper selects the data of Shaanxi Province from 2013 to 2022,and uses the STIRPAT model and scenario analysis methods to explore the trend of carbon emissions development under different development scenarios. The results of the study show that the increment of carbon emissions in Shaanxi Province at this stage mainly comes from the increase of industrial output level,which is also driven by the energy consumption structure and industrial structure,and the growth of energy intensity has a significant emission reduction effect. Maintaining a medium rate of development in economic output and population size and accelerating the upgrading of industrial structure,optimizing the energy consumption structure,and further reducing energy intensity can achieve a better effect of low-carbon development. At present,the focus of emission reduction in Shaanxi Province is on adjusting the industrial structure and optimizing the energy structure.

金颖. “双碳”目标下陕西省能源消费碳排放研究. 煤炭经济研究. 2024, 44(5): 83-90

JIN Ying. Study on carbon emissions from energy consumption in Shaanxi Province under the "Double Carbon" goal. Coal Economic Research. 2024, 44(5): 83-90