Statistical analysis and causation study of coal gas explosion under complex network
邵良杉杨金辉赵津姚清振
SHAO Liangshan;YANG Jinhui;ZHAO Jin;YAO Qingzhen
辽宁理工学院辽宁工程技术大学 工商管理学院天津理工大学 管理学院
为探究煤矿瓦斯爆炸的事故规律与关键致因,首先收集2011—2022年发生的112起瓦斯爆炸事故,统计分析事故分布特征;其次,基于扎根理论提取63个事故致因,依据复杂网络理论构建事故演化模型,结合层次分析法识别关键致因,引入边风险度挖掘高风险边;最后,构建事故主要演化路径,并提出断链措施。结果表明:当前较大重大事故是防控关键,交接班前后时间段易发生事故,事故关键致因有安全管理混乱和违规爆破等,高风险边有违规爆破→明火等,断链措施可降低致因间关联并延长事故路径。
In order to explore the accident rules and key causes of coal mine gas explosion, 112 gas explosion accidents from 2011 to 2022 were collected and their distribution characteristics were statistically analyzed. Secondly, 63 accident causes were extracted based on the grounded theory, and the accident evolution model was constructed based on the complex network theory. The key causes were identified with the analytic hierarchy process, and the risk degree of connecting edge was introduced to explore the high-risk connecting edge. Finally, the main evolutionary path of the accident is constructed, and the chain breaking measures are proposed. The results show that major accidents are the key to prevention and control, and accidents are easy to occur before and after the shift, key causes were chaos of safety management and illegal blasting, high-risk link is illegal blasting to open fire, chain breaking measures can reduce the correlation between causes and prolong the accident path.
煤矿瓦斯爆炸复杂网络事故致因演化模型风险分析
coal mine gas explosion;complex network;accident cause;evolutionary model;risk assessment
主办单位:煤炭科学研究总院有限公司 中国煤炭学会学术期刊工作委员会