在我国华北型石炭——二叠系煤田中，煤层底板灰岩岩溶突水现象尤为突出。为准确地评价煤层底板灰岩岩溶突水危险性，防治煤矿水害事故，实现承压水体上煤层安全开采。基于未知测度-集对分析理论，选用含水层厚度、单位涌水量、充水含水层渗透性、水压、断层影响因子、含水层厚度、含水层岩性组合特征以及底板破坏深度8个指标评价煤层底板灰岩岩溶突水危险性。采用有序二元比较量化法和区间数模糊决策矩阵EA-TOPSIS排序模型分别确定煤层底板灰岩岩溶突水主控因素权重。在此基础之上，基于冲突证据理论将二者进行耦合，得到煤层底板灰岩岩溶突水主控因素组合权重，保证了对动态模型指标相对重要性的有效评价。基于未知测度-集对分析理论，构建单指标直线型未知测度函数及非直线型未知测度函数，并以新汶煤田煤层开采为例，将30个监测点处实测的8个指标值代入，建立多指标综合测度矩阵。引入“置信度”评价准则判定样本数据Xi所属的危险性等级。并通过集对分析，进一步表征新汶煤田煤层开采过程中煤层底板灰岩岩溶突水风险总体态势。研究表明，评价结果与矿山实际情况相吻合。在此基础之上，依据搜集的大量华北煤矿突水案例，以其中典型的15个为例，将建立的模型推广到整个华北煤田底板突水危险性的评价。通过与矿井实际突水情况对比可以发现，模型确定的矿井突水危险性等级与实际相吻合，表明该模型对于评价整个华北煤田底板灰岩岩溶突水危险性具有一定的适宜性。

Inrush of limestone karst water through mine floor occurs frequently in the Carboniferous-Permian coalfield in northern China. How to accurately evaluate the risk of inrush of limestone karst water through mine floor has guiding significance for preventing and controlling water disaster accidents in coal mines and realizing the safe mining of coal seams above confined water bodies. The unascertained measurement evaluation and set pair analysis method were pro-posed to evaluate water inrushes using eight indices:aquifer thickness,unit water inflow,permeability of aquifers,water pressure,fault influencing factors,aquiclude thickness,aquiclude lithologic assemblage characteristics and destroyed floor depth. Ordered binary comparison quantization method and interval number fuzzy decision matrix of EA-TOPSIS ordering were used to obtain weights for these eight factors. Conflicting evidence theory was then applied to couple these weights calculated by ordered binary comparison quantization and EA-TOPSIS ordering,ensuring the effective evaluation of the relative importance of each indicator for the dynamic model. Ultimately,the unascertained measure-ment evaluation and set pair analysis method were utilized to evaluate the risk of limestone karst water inrush from coal seam floor. Based on the type of index value,the state classification was carried out through quantitative analysis,and single index measure functions,including linear and non-linear patterns,were constructed. Then,eight indicator val-ues,collected at 30 monitoring sites in Xinwen coalfield for evaluating the risk of water inrush from coal seam floor, were substituted into the measure functions to determine the multi-index comprehensive measurement matrix. Credible degree recognition criterion was then introduced to determine the risk level of the sample data Xi . Furthermore,the general situation of risk of water inrush from coal seam floor during coal seam mining in Xinwen coalfield was presen-ted by means of set pair potential analysis. The research shows that the evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation of the mine. On this basis,according to a large number of water inrush cases collected in north China-type coal mines,taking 15 typical cases as examples,the established model was applied to the risk assessment of floor water inrush for the whole north China-type coal mines. By comparing with the actual water inrush data,it can be found that the hazard degree of mine water inrush determined by the model is consistent with the actual situation,which indicates that the model has certain suitability for evaluating the risk of karst water inrush from floor limestone in the whole north China-type coalfield.