矿井水害是影响煤矿安全高效开采的主要地质因素之一.而矿井涌水量的准确预测对煤矿防治水工作具有重要的意义.本文使用时间序列分析软件( SPSS) 对亭南煤矿2007 年1 月-2019 年12 月月度涌水量数据分析.建立了ARIMA(1.1.1) 预测模型.并利用该模型对2020 年1月-2020 年6 月的涌水量数据进行预测.结果表明:与实际涌水量最大相对误差为2. 306%.最小相对误差仅为0. 464%.模型精度较高.能够很好地对亭南煤矿涌水量进行预测.

Mine water damage is one of the main geological factors affecting the safe and efficient mining of coal mines. and the accurate prediction of mine water surges is of great significance to the water control work in coal mines. In this paper. time series analysis software (SPSS) was used to analyze the monthly water influx data from January 2007 to December 2019 in Tingnan coal mine. The ARIMA (1.1.1) prediction model had been established. and the model was used to predict the water inflow data from January 2020 to June 2020. The results show that the maximum relative error with the actual water influx was 2. 306%. and the minimum Relative error was 0. 464%. which indicating the high accuracy of the model. The water inflow of Tingnan coal mine can be well predicted using this model.