State Key Laboratory of Geomechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Shenhua Xinjiang Energy Co., Ltd., National Energy Group
Safety Branch, Coal Science and Technology Research Institute

为科学评价褶曲区急倾斜特厚煤层的冲击危险性，并给冲击地压的防治提供理论指导，以乌东煤矿南采区的冲击地压防控为背景，建立了包含褶曲构造的数值模型；借助多元线性回归方法以及CASRock工程岩体破裂过程计算软件，进行了乌东矿褶曲区急倾斜特厚煤层地应力场的反演；以其中的B1+2煤层为研究对象，提取煤层、顶板和底板中的应力数据，绘制应力−埋深变化曲线，探究地应力场分布特征，确定地应力相关的危险性评价指标；根据地应力反演数据和前人的研究成果，从地质因素与开采条件等方面确定了冲击危险性评价指标；运用层次分析法，分别求出7项地质因素类指标和5项开采条件类指标的静态权重；将静态权重代入动态权重计算公式，并结合传统的综合指数法，对乌东矿南采区+500 m水平B1+2工作面进行危险性评估，对照冲击地压危险状态分级表可知，该工作面的冲击危险性为中等，与地质报告结论一致，验证了方法的合理性；运用该方法对不同埋深范围的煤层进行冲击危险性预估；同时设置对照组，运用传统的综合指数法评价相同区域的冲击危险性，结果显示该方法获得的危险性评分均高于传统方法获得的评分，说明该方法突出了评价指标中的危险性因素，克服了其他指标因素相互干扰引起的评估误差。

In order to scientifically evaluate the impact risk of steeply inclined extra-thick coal seam in folded area and provide theoretical guidance for the prevention and control of rock burst, a numerical model including folds is established in this paper based on the prevention and control of rock burst in south mining area of Wudong Coal Mine. With the help of multiple linear regression and CASRock engineering software, the back analysis of ground stress field of steeply-inclined extra-thick coal seam in folded area of Wudong Mine is carried out. Taking B1+2 coal seam as the research object, the stress data in coal seam, roof and floor are extracted, the stress-cover depth variation curve is plotted, the distribution characteristics of pre-mining stress field are explored, and the risk assessment index related to pre-mining stress is determined. According to the back analysis data of in-situ stress and previous research results, the evaluation indexes of burst risk are determined from the aspects of geological factors and mining conditions. The static weights of 7 geological factors and 5 mining conditions are obtained by Analytic Hierarchy Process. By substituting the static weight into the dynamic weight calculation formula and combining with the traditional comprehensive index method, the risk assessment of B1+2 panel at +500 m level in the south area of Wudong Mine is carried out. According to the rockburst risk classification table, the burst risk of this panel is medium, which is consistent with the conclusion of the geological report, and the rationality of the method was verified. This method is used to estimate the burst risk of coal seam with different depths. Control group is chosen, using the traditional comprehensive risk index method to evaluate the burst of the same area, the results show that the method to obtain the risk ratings were higher than the traditional methods, approach of this paper highlights the risk factors in the evaluation index, overcoming the other indicators evaluation error caused by the interference factors.

国家自然科学基金资助项目（52125903）

徐隽松，潘鹏志，陈建强，等. 基于地应力反演的褶曲区煤层冲击危险性评价研究[J]. 煤炭科学技术，2023，51（9）：35−45

XU Junsong，PAN Pengzhi，CHEN Jianqiang，et al. Study on burst risk assessment of coal seam in folded area based on pre-mining stress back analysis[J]. Coal Science and Technology，2023，51（9）：35−45