North China Institute of Science and Technology

为拓展安全评价的理论研究思路和方法,本文以灾害致因逻辑路径为导向,建立一个量化、动态、可反馈的单灾种三元安全评价体系系统动力学(SD)模型。通过辨析灾害系统影响要素,绘制安全能力、安全状态和安全业绩之间的因果关系图。运用SD理论,构建单灾种三元安全评价体系预测和评价SD模型。在模型中确定6个状态变量、6个速率变量和7个辅助变量。通过确定变量,并利用SD模型进行仿真模拟,可实现安全能力、安全状态、安全业绩的定量、动态预测和评价。将SD模型用于单灾种预测和评价,可弥补现有定性、静态和链式评价方法的不足,并且此模型可推广至多灾种领域进行综合性分析评价。

In order to expand the theoretical research ideas and methods for safety evaluation,this paper takesthe disaster-causing logical pathway as a guide and establishes a quantifiable,dynamic,and feedbackable System Dynamics (SD) model for the three-element safety evaluation system of a single disaster.By analyzingthe influencing factors of the disaster system,a causal relationship diagram is drawn between safety capability,safety status and safety performance.Using SD theory,a predictive and evaluative SD model for the three-element safety evaluation system of a single disaster is constructed.In the model,6 state variables,6 rate variables,and 7 auxiliary variables are determined.By determining the variables and using SD model for simulation,quantitative and dynamic prediction and evaluation of safety capability,safety status,and safety performance can be achieved.The use of the SD model for single disaster prediction and evaluation can compensatefor the shortcomings of existing qualitative, static, and chain - based evaluation methods.Furthermore, thismodel can be extended to the multiple disaster field for comprehensive analysis and evaluation.

谢宏,黄汉斌 .单灾种三元安全评价体系模型研究及其推广[J].华北科技学院学报,2024,21(1):55-60

XIE Hong, HUANG Hanbin.Research and promotion of single disaster ternary safety evaluation system model[J].Journal of North China Institute of Science and Technology,2024,21(1):55-60