Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, School of Economics and Management

研究商品价格对经济发展的影响有利于制定更高效的经济政策。煤炭是重要的大宗商品,其变动情况影响着经济的发展。基于对内蒙古1992—2021年的经济相关数据的整理与研究,从新发展格局的背景出发,采用广义倾向得分匹配法,围绕“煤价与内蒙古经济之间的影响关系”该主题展开一系列分析与实证检验。研究发现,煤炭价格变动与内蒙古经济之间存在“N形”关系,即随着煤炭价格变动率的增加,内蒙古经济呈“上升-下降-上升”趋势,认为可通过制定财政政策、加强智能化建设、加强新能源的开发与使用以控制煤价,使煤价变动强度保持在有利于经济发展的水平上。

The study of the impact of commodity prices on economic development facilitates the formulation of more efficient economicpolicies. Coal is an important bulk commodity, and its movement affects the development of the economy. This paper is based on theorganization and study of the economic data of Inner Mongolia from 1992 to 2021, and from the background of the new development pattern,adopts the generalized propensity score matching method to carry out a series of analyses and empirical tests centering on the theme of " therelationship between coal price and Inner Mongolia's economy" . It is found that there is an " N-shaped" relationship between coal pricechanges and Inner Mongolia's economy, i. e. , as the rate of change of coal prices increases, Inner Mongolia's economy shows a " rising-declining-rising" trend. This paper argues that coal prices can be controlled by formulating fiscal policies, strengthening intelligentconstruction, and enhancing the development and use of new energy sources, so that the intensity of coal price changes can be kept at alevel conducive to economic development.