随着“双碳”目标的提出,长三角地区面临一定的减排压力。合理布局规划碳捕集利用与封存(CCUS)项目对保障长三角地区能源安全,平稳实现区域“双碳”目标具有重要意义。CCUS技术的发展面临诸多不确定性因素,对CCUS未来时空部署形成巨大挑战。然而,现有CCUS源汇匹配研究多采用混合整数线性规划等方法,未充分考虑排放源、技术和政策等因素变化对CCUS减排潜力、宏观布局及成本效益的影响,导致规划结果与实际情况相比可能存在一定的偏差,给CCUS大规模部署带来较大挑战。为解决复杂不确定条件下CCUS源汇匹配问题,通过模糊可能性、随机机会约束和区间线性规划等方法,构建基于区间模糊机会约束规划方法的CCUS源汇匹配模型,应用在中国长三角地区CCUS源汇匹配的实际问题中,探究风险管理和决策支持方案。研究发现:若考虑不确定性,长三角地区CCUS项目总成本将高于确定性模型的评估结果;在违约风险为40%的情况下,长三角CCUS项目源汇匹配总成本最低,平准化减排成本低于30美元/t的排放源占筛选出排放源总数的38.5%,累计厂级碳捕集潜力56.9亿t。因此,将多重不确定性纳入模型综合考虑,探究不确定性条件下的CCUS源汇匹配部署方案,在提高项目经济性、可行性等方面具有重要的实际意义。

Under carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals,the Yangtze River Delta region faces emission reduction pressures. Deploymentof Carbon Capture,Utilization,and Storage (CCUS) projects are crucial for ensuring energy security in the Yangtze River Delta regionand achieving the net-zero ambition. CCUS projects faces multiple uncertainties. However,most of the previous research were focused onCCUS source-sink matching with mixed-integer linear programming method. Changes of emission sources,development of technologiesand policies were ignored. This may lead to the deviations between the planning results and real-world case. Therefore,a CCUS source-sink matching model was developed based on interval fuzzy chance-constrained programming methods under uncertainties. A YangtzeRiver Delta case study will be applied to explore risk management and policy-making decisions. Results show that,for Yangtze River Deltaregion,the total cost of CCUS projects will be higher than that of deterministic models; when the constraint-violation probability forreduction demands is 40%,the total cost of CCUS projects is the lowest,38.5% of plants have a levelized cost of emission reduction below30 $/t CO2,and the total mitigation potential will be 5.69 Gt CO2. Hence,exploring CCUS source-sink matching deployment plans under multiple uncertainties is critical for exploring the tradeoff of risks and benefits.

0 引言

1 CCUS源汇匹配模型构建

   1.1 区间模糊机会约束规划方法

   1.2 基于区间模糊机会约束规划方法的CCUS源汇匹配模型

   1.3 数据来源

2 不确定性条件下长三角地区CCUS源汇匹配分析

   2.1 长三角地区多行业CCUS减排潜力分析

   2.2 多重不确定性条件下CCUS源汇匹配布局规划方案

   2.3 CCUS项目经济性分析

3 结语