National Institute of Clean-and-low-carbon Energy
School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology
China Coal Industry Association Productivity Center

在“双碳”背景下,为达成减排目标履行对国际社会的承诺,合理控制煤炭需求量成为关键,因此探究影响我国煤炭需求变动的影响因素并探索降低我国煤炭需求的路径具有重要的现实意义。基于广义迪氏指数分解法(GDIM)研究我国煤炭需求变动的影响因素,通过对我国煤炭需求变动年度、变动阶段地行分解,从而得出结论并给出政策建议。研究发现:经济规模效应和能源规模效应是影响我国煤炭需求增长的主要因素,且经济规模效应的影响程度最大,而技术进步效应和能源替代效应为煤炭需求增长的主要抑制因素,技术进步效应的影响程度最大。同时以结果为导向,为合理控制煤炭需求量、减少碳排放、促进“双碳”目标的达成提出了政策建议。

In the context of "double carbon", in order to achieve emission reduction targets and fulfill commitments to the international community, reasonable control of coal demand has become the key. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to explore the influencing factors of China’s coal demand change and explore the path to reduce China’s coal demand. Based on the generalized divisia index decomposition method (GDIM), this paper studies the main influencing factors of China’s coal demand change from 1980 to 2020. It is found that the economic scale effect and energy scale effect are the main factors affecting the growth of coal demand in China, and the economic scale effect has the greatest influence, while the technological progress effect and energy substitution effect are the main restraining factors for the growth of coal demand, and the technological progress effect has the greatest influence. At the same time, taking the results as the guide, it puts forward policy suggestions for reasonably controlling coal demand, reducing carbon emissions and promoting the achievement of the “dual carbon” goal.

罗文, 沈涛, 郑厚发, 许德轩. 基于GDIM的煤炭需求变动影响因素分析. 煤炭经济研究. 2024, 44(5): 31-37

LUO Wen, SHEN Tao, ZHENG Houfa, XU Dexuan. Analysis of influencing factors of coal demand change based on GDIM. Coal Economic Research. 2024, 44(5): 31-37