矿井突(透)水灾害应急抢险救援的“自救互救”和“他救”效果与成功率如何，很大程度取决于在灾害整个演变过程中对井下涉险人员所处危险性的科学评价与合理预测。针对我国目前在这方面缺乏系统定量评价的难题，构建了涉险人员危险性影响因素的评价指标体系，即个体特征、矿井巷道、水流特征、气体情况和其他物理因素;通过分析矿井水灾演变过程中灾情对涉险人员的危险作用形式，结合矿井水灾影响因素特点，定义了人员的水流危险性、气体危险性和其他危险性，提出了涉险人员危险性定量评价方法与模型，构建了适用于水灾演变过程中涉险人员多种危险性的综合评价计算规则。以典型矿井为例，实现了矿井水灾过程中涉险人员危险性的动态评价，分析了不同特征涉险人员在灾情中危险性的差异，讨论了坡度、地面摩擦因数、水流密度对危险性的敏感性，并给出了降低危险性的相应减灾建议。结果表明:所提出的方法可以科学地解释、评价、量化涉险人员在水灾环境多因素影响下的危险性，提高了涉险人员在矿井水灾演变过程中“知险”的能力，同时为应急抢险救援方案合理制定提供了技术支撑，对保障应急抢险救援过程中的“自救互救”效果和“他救”成功率均具有重要意义和实用价值。

The effectiveness and success rate of “self-rescue and mutual rescue” and “other rescue” in the emergency rescue of water burst disaster in mines depends largely on the scientific evaluation and reasonable prediction of the hazards to the underground risk-involved personnel throughout the evolution of the disaster. Given China’ s current lack of systematic quantitative evaluation in this regard,a hazard impact evaluation index system is constructed,consid- ering individual characteristics,mine roadway,water flow characteristics,gas conditions and other physical factors. By analyzing the dangerous form of disaster on the personnel involved in the mine water disaster evolution process,and combining with the characteristics of the mine water disaster influencing factors,three hazards to the risk-involved per- sonnel are defined,namely the water flow hazard,gas hazard and other hazard. The quantitative method and model of hazard assessment for the risk-related personnel are put forward,and the comprehensive evaluation calculation rules suitable for the multiple hazards to the risk-related personnel during the disaster evolution process are constructed. Taking a typical mine as an example,the dynamic evaluation of the hazard to the personnel during the water disaster is realized,and the differences in the water flow hazard to the personnel with different characteristics in the disaster situa- tion are analyzed. The sensitivities of slope,ground friction coefficient and water flow density to hazards are discussed, and corresponding disaster mitigation suggestions for reducing hazards are given. The results show that the proposed method can scientifically explain the influence of multiple factors in the evaluation and quantification of the personnel hazard assessment of the mine water disasters,which improves the ability of the hazard cognition for the risk-involved personnel in the disasters. At the same time,it provides highly targeted technical support for the rational formulation of emergency rescue plans. The research results have important theoretical guidance and practical value for ensuring the success rate of “self-rescue and mutual rescue” and the “other rescue” in the process of emergency rescue.