碳中和愿景擘画了国家碳减排与气候治理的宏伟蓝图，但中国经济结构和能源结构决定了该目标实现的艰难。当前煤炭仍是我国能源安全的基石，并将在未来很长时间内一直发挥着巨大作用。如何绿色开采、科学用煤是国家2030年碳达峰与2060年碳中和愿景实现的关键。为此，从“脱碳”与“去煤”非对等关系着手，引入全生命周期视角厘清煤炭行业与下游产业间的减排责任。依据6个不同机构设置的10种情景，选取重要参数，预测未来30 a中国的煤炭需求。审视煤炭行业发展与碳中和愿景之间差距，制定符合国情的从碳达峰—碳中和愿景实现不同阶段的发展路线图。研究表明:① 盲目“去煤”不符合国情，但煤炭行业要正视国家战略需求与行业发展目标之间的偏差，厘清行业责任以及切合实际义务的减排边界，明确煤电、煤化工等下游利用产生的碳排放不应归于煤炭行业。② 不同情景下煤炭需求存在巨大差异，大致分为维系现状、适度减少和净零愿景3个区间。所有预测煤炭占一次能源份额均趋于衰减，煤炭行业发展空间大大减少。2030—2050年既是行业存亡的关键期，也是技术变革的活跃期。③ 当前煤炭行业发展、规划以及战略导向与碳中和愿景目标仍存在很大的差距，包括标准规范、监管要求、治理能力、技术研发、激励机制等诸多方面。煤炭行业未来的发展空间最终取决于自身能否实现原位利用、近零排放，以及碳捕获、利用与封存(CCUS)技术能否应用与推广。因此，未来应科学评估煤炭全生命周期的碳足迹，树立“能源命运共同体”理念，推动低碳防污协同治理。将煤炭行业实现碳中和愿景划分为起步期(2020—2030年)、攻关期(2030—2050年)、巩固期(2050—2060年)3个阶段，不同阶段应付诸行之有效的技术路径，兼顾节能减排与开源增汇的双重策略，确保煤炭行业在新形势下健康、平稳、绿色、有序发展。

The carbon neutrality proposed in China lays out a grand blueprint for national carbon emission reduction and climate governance.However,it will be difficult to implement this vision due to the structure of economic and energy in China.Currently,the coal is still the cornerstone for China’s energy security,which will play an important role for a long time in the future.Thus,the green mining and scientific utilization of coal are the key to realize the goal of carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060.In this study,the non-reciprocal relationship between “decarbonization”and “giving up the coal”was expounded.The carbon emission reduction responsibility of the coal industry and its downstream industries was clarified from the perspective of the whole life cycle.The main forecasting parameters was extracted under the 10 scenarios of 6 institutions,and the coal demand from 2020 to 2050 was forecasted.The deviation between the development of the coal industry and the vision of carbon neutrality was re-examined.Then the development roadmap to realize from carbon peak to carbon neutrality was formulated.The results show ① “giving up coal” blindly is not consistence with national conditions.However,the coal industry must face up to the national strategy and the demand target of industry development.Moreover,it is necessary to clarify the boundary of emission reduction between industry responsibility and its own obligations.Specially,the carbon sources formed by downstream utilization should not be attributed to the coal industry,such as coal power and coal chemical industry.② The differences of coal demand in different scenarios,which could be divided into three regions:status quo,moderate emission reduction,and netzero vision.But all forecasts tend to lose market share.The critical period for the survival of the coal industry will be 2030—2050.Therefore,the development space of the coal industry has been greatly reduced.③ Currently,there are still huge deviations between the vision of carbon neutrality and the coal industry,including but not limited to its development,planning and strategic orientation.These deficiencies are reflected in series aspects,such as standard specification,regulatory requirement,governance capacity,technology research,and incentive mechanism.The future development space of coal ultimately depends on whether it could achieve ISRU (In-situ Resource Utilization),net zero carbon emissions and its application,and the promotion of CCUS (Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage) technology.Therefore,the carbon neutralization program should evaluate the carbon footprint in the whole life cycle of coal,establish the idea of “community with a shared future for energy”,and promote the cooperative treatment of low carbon and anti-pollution.Moreover,the process to achieve carbon neutrality in the coal industry could be divided into three stages:the initial stage (2020—2030),the critical stage (2030—2050),and the consolidation stage (2050—2060).In different stages,effective technical paths should be put into practice,and the dual strategies of “saving energy and reducing emissions” as well as “increasing carbon sink” should be considered.Only in this way can the coal industry develop in a healthy,steady,green and orderly way under the new situation.

1 “脱碳"≠"去煤”

2 碳中和愿景对煤炭行业的挑战

3 中国未来煤炭行业发展态势

   3.1 典型机构设定的煤炭需求预测分析

   3.2 低碳技术进步修正的煤炭需求预测

4 煤炭行业现状与碳中和愿景的差距

5 面向碳中和愿景的煤炭行业发展路线图

   5.1 基本研判

   5.2 路径选择

6 结论与展望