碳中和目标下传统能源体系面临根本性变革.煤炭作为国家能源安全的压舱石.如何引领绿色发展.实现双碳目标是煤炭行业发展的责任.为此.从碳中和目标的客观要求出发.明确煤炭在未来能源体系下不同情景(可控保底.优化保底.核心保底)弹性安全区间中的重要作用,利用全生命周期评价方法厘清煤炭资源全过程碳足迹.探索不同技术路径下煤炭技术变革和创新发展的可行性,最后.提出顺应碳中和愿景目标要求的未来煤炭行业颠覆式变革技术路径.并探讨2条技术路径的优劣性.结果表明:① 煤炭在未来能源体系下仍可发挥重要作用.尤其是作为保底安全能源不可或缺.在核心保底.优化保底和可控保底等3种情景弹性安全区间中分别占61.5%.47.1%.43.5%,② 2019年煤炭全生命周期碳足迹为71.3亿t.其中.发电和供热环节占56.1%.钢铁冶炼占26.6%.煤化工环节占8.1%.推行零碳高效发电.终端电气化和煤制绿氢是煤炭行业实现碳中和目标的技术变革之首选,③ 探讨了UCG-IGCC-CCUS发电技术和UCG-H2-CCUS制绿氢技术变革的可行性.与超超临界燃煤和IGCC发电相比.UCG-IGCC-CCUS虽发电煤耗上升.但可实现零排放.与其他制氢技术相比.UCG-H2-CCUS制绿氢技术具有明显的成本优势.且可实现近零排放.这些技术将成为煤炭安全.高效.绿色.零碳变革的必由之路.为碳中和目标下煤炭行业创新发展和技术变革提供科学理论和技术支撑.

Under the background of carbon neutralization era.the traditional energy system has been confronted with fundamental changes and innovation. How to lead green development and achieve carbon peak and neutrality.has become the obligatory responsibility of the coal industry development.because of its key role as the ballast stone of national energy security. Therefore.it is urgent to clarify the importance of coal in the elastic safety range of the future energy system.under three scenarios (controllable.optimized.and core bottom-guarantee).with the objective requirement of the carbon neutrality. The method of whole life cycle was presented to clarify the carbon footprint of coal source throughout its whole process. The feasibility of coal technological innovation and innovative development under different technical pathways was explored. Finally.the subversive innovative technology path for future coal industry has been proposed.corresponding to target requirements of carbon neutralization.while the advantages and weakness of the two technical paths were discussed. The results show that:① Coal can still play an important role in the future energy system.and it is an essential indispensable source because it has been regarded as the guaranteed safe energy source. The core.optimization.and controllable bottom-guarantee scenarios account for 61.5%.47.1%.and 43.5% of the elastic safety zones.respectively;② The carbon footprint of coal`s entire life cycle is approximately 7.13 billion tons.including 56.1% of power generation and heating sectors.and 26.6% of the iron steel smelting sector.as well as 8.1% of the coal chemical industry sector. The implementation of zero carbon efficient power generation.terminal electrification and coal-to-green hydrogen are the primary choices.for the technological innovation of the coal industry to achieve carbon neutrality;③ The feasibilities of UCG-IGCC-CCUS power generation technology and UCG-H2-CCUS-green hydrogen technology innovations have been investigated and explored. Compared with ultra-supercritical coal-fired and IGCC power generation.the power generation coal consumption of UCG-IGCC-CCUS has been increased.but it has achieved zero emission. Compared with blue hydrogen production from renewable energy.UCG-H2-CCUS production of green hydrogen has the obvious cost advantages.while it can achieve nearly zero emissions. These technologies will become the only way for coal safety.efficient.green.and zero-carbon transformations.providing scientific theory and technical support for coal industry development and technological innovation under the carbon neutrality goal.

1 碳中和对经济和社会发展及能源体系的要求

   1.1 碳中和与高质量发展及能源体系的关联

   1.2 碳中和目标下能源体系的弹性保底

2 煤炭全生命周期碳足迹评估

3 煤炭行业技术路径分析

4 碳中和技术革新路径选择

   4.1 UCG-IGCC-CCUS技术

   4.2 UCG-H2-CCUS技术

5 结论