随着中国2030碳达峰、2060年碳中和目标的提出，在发展能源的同时不断降低温室气体排放已成为电力生产的必要约束条件，生物质混烧技术可有效降低CO2排放量，增加绿色能源的份额。但我国现有燃煤电厂中混烧的实际应用仍较少，目前，经济性是制约生物质混烧在我国发展的主要因素。随着政府补贴机制的退出，该技术应用于发电面临着巨大挑战。然而，碳税交易机制可能会给生物质混烧的经济性带来新的转机。建立了生物质混烧发电的技术经济计算模型，评估了混烧技术取代煤炭装机容量的技术经济潜力，研究了在碳税交易背景下考虑不同约束条件时采用生物质混烧的经济可行性。结果表明，当标准煤价格为780元/t、碳税价格为60元/t、定热值生物质价格为450元/t时，可基本实现生物质混烧的盈亏平衡。对参数的敏感性分析表明，在给定热值下，标准煤价增加100元/t与生物质价格减少50元/t或碳税增加36元/t对额外成本的影响基本相同。单位热值的生物质价格、标准煤价格和碳税均对经济性具有重要影响，较低的单位热值生物质价格和较高的碳税比率有利于煤价达到混烧与纯燃煤的盈亏平衡点。由于单位热值生物质价格、煤价、运输费用等因素对混烧的经济性均有影响，需以各电厂的具体参数为背景确定混烧的经济性。

With the proposal of China's carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutralization target in 2060，it has become a necessary constraint for power generation industries to continuously reduce greenhouse gas emissions while developing energy. Biomass co-firing technology can reduce CO2 emissions effectively and increase the share of green energy. However，the practical application of co-firing in China's existing coal-fired power plants is still little. Under the current background，economy is the main problem restricting the development of biomass co-firing in China. With the withdrawal of government subsidy，the application of this technology to power generation is facing great challenges. But the carbon tax trading may bring a new turn for the economy of biomass co-firing. In this case，a technical and economic model of power generation with biomass co-combustion was established，the technical potential of replacing coal installed capacity by co-combustion technology was evaluated，and the economic feasibility of biomass co-combustion was studied under the background of carbon tax trading considering different constraints. The results show that the cost balance of biomass co-combustion can be achieved when the standard coal price is 780 yuan/t，carbon tax is 60 yuan/t and biomass price is 450 yuan/t. The sensitivity analysis of parameters shows that under the given heat value，the impact of standard coal price increase of 100 yuan/t is basically the same as biomass price decrease of 50 yuan/t or carbon tax increase of 36 yuan/t on additional cost. The heating value based biomass price，standard coal price and carbon tax all have important influence on the economic feasibility. The lower heating value based biomass price and the higher carbon tax ratio are conducive for the coal price to achieve the profit and loss balance point of co-combustion and pure coal combustion. Because the price of biomass per unit calorific value，coal price，transportation cost and other factors have a positive impact on the economy of co-firing，the economy of co-firing must be determined based on the specific parameters of each power plant.

0 引言

1 生物质混烧技术经济模型建立

   1.1 模型假设

   1.2 模型建立

2 生物质掺烧经济性分析

3 结论与展望