“双碳”目标的提出，要求我国在强化CO2排放控制的同时加强对甲烷等非CO₂温室气体的控排。在研究我国煤矿甲烷排放来源及构成的基础上，采用基于矿井实测法T3方法分析测算我国煤矿甲烷的历史排放趋势，辨识煤矿甲烷排放的影响因素，建立煤矿甲烷排放主因素分析模型(MFAME)，并按照基准、发展、新政策3种情景预测到2060年的煤矿甲烷排放量，提出甲烷减排的总体路径和减排关键技术。研究表明：煤矿地下开采过程中的甲烷排放是我国煤矿甲烷最主要的排放来源，露天开采过程中的甲烷排放和废弃煤矿的甲烷排放量呈现上升趋势。我国煤矿甲烷排放总量仍然较大，基于T3方法测算的煤矿瓦斯统计排放量峰值为591.6万t。碳中和目标下煤炭消费需求侧的加速减少会导致煤炭产量快速下降、煤矿数量减少以及煤炭供应生产结构的进一步调整，高瓦斯矿井、煤与瓦斯突出矿井等灾害严重矿井比例逐渐减少。预计不同情景下，到2060年，我国煤矿甲烷的排放量为365万～542万t。未来需加强煤矿地下开采、矿后活动及废弃煤矿瓦斯排放等重点排放环节的管控，按照“技术-经济-政策”协同发展路径，深入推动低浓度瓦斯高效提浓技术、超低浓度通风瓦斯催化氧化销毁和余热利用技术等瓦斯利用关键技术的研发，建立废弃煤矿瓦斯逸散监测及治理利用技术体系，提高煤矿瓦斯综合利用量和利用率。

It is essential to strengthen the emission control of carbon dioxide and non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases including methane as well under the carbon emission peak & carbon neutrality goal in China. Based on the source and composition of methane emissions from coal mines in China,T3 approach using direct measurements on a mine-specific basis was proposed to analyze and estimate the historical coal mine methane emission trends in China. The influencing factors of methane emissions from coal mines were identified,and the coal mine methane emissions in 2060 was predicted by MFAME (Main Factor Analysis Model of Coal Mine Methane Emissions) according to three scenarios:BAU,rapid,and new policy. Moreover,the overall path of methane emission reduction and key technologies for emission reduction were put forward. Research results show that methane emissions from coal mining in underground coal mines are the most important source of coal mine methane emissions in China,and the methane emissions by surface coal mining and abandoned coal mines are on the rise. The total amount of China’s coal mine methane emissions is still large. The statistic peak coal mine methane emissions calculated based on T3 approach is 5.916 million tonnes. The accelerated demand side of coal consumption reduction under the carbon neutrality goal will lead to rapid decline in coal production,reduction in coal mines numbers,and further adjustment in the structure of coal production. The proportion of high gas mines,coal and gas outburst mines and other disaster stricken mines will gradually decrease. It is predicted that by 2060,China’s total coal mine methane emissions will be 3.65 million-5.42 million tonnes. In the future,it is necessary to strengthen the management and control of key emission parts such as underground coal mining,post mining activities,and methane emissions of abandoned coal mines. In accordance with the technologyeconomypolicy synergetic development roadmap,the deep R&D of key technologies for gas utilization is expected such as high efficiency gas purification technology for low concentration methane,catalytic oxidation and waste heat utilization technology for ultra low-concentration VAM. It is also suggested to establish abandoned coal mine gas emission monitoring and utilization technology system to achieve the target to promote the comprehensive utilization and utilization ratio of coal mine methane.

1 我国煤矿甲烷排放现状

   1.1 煤矿甲烷排放构成

   1.2 煤矿甲烷排放量

   1.3 煤矿甲烷排放特点

2 我国煤矿甲烷排放趋势

   2.1 煤矿甲烷排放影响因素分析

   2.2 煤矿甲烷排放量预测

3 碳中和目标下的煤矿甲烷减排路径及关键技术

   3.1 煤矿甲烷减排路径

   3.2 煤矿甲烷减排关键技术

4 结论