针对能源供需矛盾日益加剧，开发可再生新能源实现节能减排成为全球性问题。采用碳定价的方式，可以提高燃煤发电成本并促进可再生能源发电。生物质储量丰富，CO₂净排放量为0，为实现碳中和提供可能。国外越来越多的国家采用碳定价的方式来促进减排，本文分析了不同碳定价情形下，我国附加碳价的燃煤发电成本，并将生物质发电与其他发电方式进行了对比，明确了随着煤价的不断上涨及《巴黎协定》温控目标实现需要进一步提高碳定价的迫切需求，生物质直燃发电成本与燃煤发电间的差距将逐渐缩小，此外，随着生物质发电技术的不断成熟和完善，其运行可靠性将会得到大幅度改善，为生物质发电的大力推广奠定了基础。研究结果表明：综合经济和技术优势，生物质发电有着非常好的市场前景。

In response to the increasing conflict between energy supply and demand,the development of renewable energy sources to achieve energy saving and emission reduction has become a global issue. The adoption of carbon pricing can increase the cost of coal-fired power generation and promote renewable energy generation. Biomass reserves are abundant and the net CO2 emissions are zero,which makes it possible to realize carbon neutralization. More and more foreign countries adopt carbon pricing to promote emission reduction. The cost of coal-fired power generation with additional carbon pricing in China under different carbon pricing scenarios was analyzed,and the biomass power generation with other power generation methods was compared,making it clear that the gap between the cost of biomass direct combustion power generation and coal-fired power generation will gradually narrow as coal prices continue to rise and the urgent need to further increase carbon pricing to achieve the Paris Agreement temperature control targets. In addition,as biomass power generation technology continues to mature and improve,its operational reliability will be substantially improved,laying the foundation for the vigorous promotion of biomass power generation. Biomass power generation has a very good market prospect due to the combined economic and technical advantages.

0 引言

1 碳定价现状及发展趋势

2 发电成本预测

   2.1 煤电成本现状

   2.2 生物质发电成本现状

3 碳定价下成本比较

4 碳定价背景下生物质发电前景分析

   4.1 生物质发电成本的劣势改善

   4.2 碳捕集与封存导致煤电成本增加

   4.3 发展可再生能源可促进生物质发电

5 生物质发电的发展方向

   5.1 耦合发电

   5.2 直燃发电、供热

   5.3 与垃圾混烧发电

   5.4 闭环产业化发展

6 结论