碳达峰碳中和目标的提出对煤炭行业碳减排提出了巨大挑战，煤炭行业将面临全方位深度调整，在保障能源安全的前提下有序开展煤炭行业稳健可靠碳减排至关重要。基于煤炭流图和煤炭终端消费部门分析法，识别了煤炭消费重点领域并建立了基于部门情景分析法的煤炭保障性需求预测模型，系统分析预测了碳中和目标下电力、煤化工、钢铁、水泥、热力等部门在基准情景、保障情景和强化保障情景下的煤炭保障性需求，并用类比法论证了结果的可靠性。结果表明：2030、2040、2050年中长期煤炭产能需求量分别为21.2亿～28.7亿、14.0亿～20.9亿和6.6亿～13.1亿t标准煤；2060年基准情景和保障情景下煤炭保障性需求量为2.8亿～6.1亿t标准煤，考虑电力中断加剧和油气安全保障的强化保障情景下煤炭产能需求量将达到7.3亿t；电力部门和煤化工部门对于煤炭产能需求量的影响较大，且具有较高的不确定性，2060年电力部门和煤化工部门的煤炭保障性需求量分别为2.1亿～5.9亿和0.3亿～1.1亿t标准煤；其他工业部门能效提升、工艺优化、产量调整等将减少其煤炭需求，煤炭将由工业燃料向碳基原料转变；对比国际主要国家煤炭发展历程，2060年我国煤炭消费量将分别达到2.9亿和5.6亿～7.6亿t标准煤，本预测结果可信度较高。总量锐减、生产与消费结构优化、产业链延伸和低碳技术发展是碳中和背景下煤炭行业可持续发展的典型特征。面对碳中和背景下煤炭产业的长期发展趋势，煤炭行业应从煤炭产能科学评价、产业链革新、节能减排、保障电力安全和煤炭柔性化供给进行优化。

The proposal of carbon peak and carbon neutral targets put forward a huge challenge to the carbon emission reduction of the coal industry,and the coal industry will face all-round and in-depth adjustment. In order to ensure the energy security,it is very important to carry out stable and reliable carbon emission reduction in the coal industry in an orderly manner. Based on coal flow chart and energy consumption level of numerous coal consumers,the key areas of coal consumption were identified and the coal fundamental demand projection model was established based on the department scenario analysis method. And the fundamental coal requirements of different coal consumption sectors (electricity,chemical,steel,cement,heating) were systematically analyzed under the constraints of carbon neutrality and energy security and the reliability of the results by analogy was demonstrated. The results reveal that the coal production capacity demand in 2030,2040 and 2050 will be within the range of 2 120 million-2 870 million,1 400 million-2 090 million and 660 million-1 310 million tons of standard coal respectively;in 2060,the basic coal requirement will be within the range of 280 million-610 million tons of standard coal. the demand for coal production capacity will increase significantly to 730 million tons of standard coal in the intensive security situation that can guarantee supply of power,oil and gas. The power sector and coal chemical sector have a great impact on the demand for coal production capacity and there is high uncertainty.In 2060,the coal guarantee demand of the power sector and coal chemical sector will reach 210 million-590 million and 30 million-110 million tons of standard coal respectively.Energy efficiency improvement,process optimization and output adjustment in other industrial sectors will reduce their coal demand,and coal will be transformed from industrial fuel to carbon based raw materials.Compared with the coal development history of major international countries,China′s coal consumption will reach 290 million and 560 million-760 million tons of standard coal respectively in 2060. The reliability of prediction result is high. The sharp decline in total coal production,the optimization of production and consumption structures,the extension of coal industrial chains,and the development of low-carbon technologies will be the typical characteristics of the sustainable development of the coal industry under carbon neutrality goal. Facing the long-term development trend under the background of carbon neutralization,the coal industry should be optimized from production capacity evaluation,industrial chain innovation,energy conservation and emission reduction,power security guarantee and coal flexible supply.

0 引言

1 部门情景分析法原理

   1.1 部门情景分析法

   1.2 基于煤炭流图的煤炭需求关键部门识别

2 碳中和目标下煤炭保障性需求组合预测建模

   2.1 基于部门情景分析法的煤炭保障性需求预测模型

   2.2 数据来源与情景设置

3 结果分析与讨论

   3.1 碳中和目标下分部门煤炭保障性需求预测结果

   3.2 碳中和目标下煤炭保障性需求综合预测结果

   3.3 基于趋势分析法的国际典型案例结果验证与分析

4 结论与建议

   4.1 主要结论

   4.2 政策建议