为分析采煤工作面不同时期、不同空间的微震响应特征差异，进而实现矿井水害预警和防治，基于典型案例分析提出了一种基于微震监测的工作面底板突水全时空预警的方法。所谓“全时空”是指包括采前时期、超前采动影响时期和开采时期在内的工作面全时间周期的3时段划分，以及工作面全空间的7个评价区域划分。在第1时段（采前时期），基于钻孔工程信息（钻孔涌水量、钻孔水压、钻孔注浆量）和微震响应特征，形成了突水危险性的表示方法，确定了原发性突水危险区，进而实现了采前时期突水危险性的长期预测；在第2时段（超前采动影响时期），设置“固定工作面”，并对微震事件及震源参数进行重新定位，在对微震事件核密度分析的基础上，获取突水前兆信息，确定了超前影响区、滞后影响区、侧向影响区的突水特征，进而实现了超前采动影响时期的突水危险性预警；在第3时段（开采时期），结合微震事件核密度分析，确定了顶板导水破坏区、底板破坏区、底板采动损伤区，引入2D-CE法在平面上对微震事件进行规范化，分析微震事件置信椭圆与预警含水层的位置关系，进而实现了工作面开采时期的突水危险性预报。同时根据开采验证结果，对前期预报方法进行修正，为后续工作面突水预报服务，使得焦作、邯邢矿区多个工作面基于微震监测的底板突水预测结果更加准确。

To explore the difference of microseismic characteristics in different periods and spaces of the working face and then realize the early warning of water damage, a full-time and space early-warning method for floor water inrush based on microseismic monitoring was proposed based on typical case analysis. The so-called “full-time and space” refers to the 3 time periods of the whole time cycle of the working face, including pre-mining period, advanced-mining period, and mining period, and the 7 evaluation zones of the whole space of the working face. In the first period, based on the engineering information of boreholes and microseismic response characteristics, the expression method of water inrush risk was formed, and the primary abnormal zones were determined, thus realizing the long-term prediction of water inrush risk in the pre-mining period. In the second period, the fixed working face was set up and the microseismic events were repositioned. Based on the nuclear density analysis of the frequency and energy of microseismic events at the “fixed working face”, the water inrush characteristics of the leading influence zone, the lagging influence zone and the lateral influence zone were determined, realizing the water inrush risk early-warning in the advanced mining period. In the third period, the 2D-CE method was introduced to normalize the microseismic events on the plane, the early-warning aquifer was defined, and the roof damage zone, the floor damage zone, and the floor mining damage zone were determined in combination with the frequency of microseismic events and the energy nuclear density analysis, realizing the water inrush risk prediction in the mining period. At the same time, according to the mining verification results, the prediction method in the early phase was modified to serve the water inrush early warning in the subsequent working face, making the prediction results of floor water inrush more accurate in Jiaozuo and Hanxing mining areas.

0 引言
1 工作面底板突水全时空预警方法
1.1 工作面全时间周期的时段划分
1.2 工作面全空间的区域划分
2 第一时段：采前时期的突水危险性长期预测
2.1 工作面的突水危险性预测
2.1.1 工作面突水危险区确定方法
2.1.2 底板突水危险性表示方法
2.1.3 突水危险区的划分标准
2.1.4 解析案例
2.2 网络并行电法验证
3 第二时段：超前采动影响时期的突水危险性短期预警
3.1“固定工作面”微震事件分析法
3.2 采动支承压力影响的底板突水预测
3.2.1 采动支承压力影响范围的确定方法
3.2.2 解析案例
4 第三时段：开采时期突水危险性预报
4.1 底板导水破坏的突水危险性预测
4.1.1 底板导水破坏确定方法
4.1.2 解析案例
4.2 不同开采阶段底板采动损伤的突水危险性预测
4.2.1 底板采动损伤区形成过程确定方法
4.2.2 解析案例
5 结论