基于系统动力学理论知识,建立黄河流域水-能源-粮食系统安全韧性模型,对黄河流域2015—2019年供水量、需水量、粮食生产量、粮食消耗量、能源生产量、能源消耗量进行仿真分析;并根据新版与旧版行业用水定额,制定了2个不同情景。对不同情景分析得知:黄河流域存在供水缺口;且随着行业用水定额由旧版变为新版,供水缺口更甚,存在严重的水资源安全问题。基于此,提出相关建议。

Based on the theoretical knowledge of system dynamics, a safety resilience model of water-energy-food in the Yellow River Basinis established. Simulation analysis is conducted on the water supply, water demand, food production, food consumption, energy production,energy consumption of the Yellow River Basin from 2015 to 2019. Two different scenarios have been developed according to the new and oldindustry water quotas. The analysis results of different scenarios show that there is a water supply gap in the Yellow River Basin. As theindustry water quota changes from the old version to the new version, the water supply gap is even worse, posing a serious water resourcesecurity problem. Based on this, some suggestions are put forward.