Joint National-Local Engineering Research Centre for Safe and Precise Coal Mining, Anhui University of Science and Technology
Institute of Energy, Hefei Comprehensive National Science Center

煤炭工业低碳转型既是其实现高质量发展的内在要求，也是落实国家“双碳”战略目标的重要抓手。“双碳”目标对煤炭工业碳减排提出了更高要求，精准把控煤炭工业减排降碳现状是高质量实现“双碳”目标的基础与前提，本研究旨在对煤炭工业全生命周期碳排放量及影响因素进行研究。以中国煤炭工业为研究对象，从开采分选、运输、加工转换、消费利用4个阶段对煤炭工业的碳排放进行核算，并进一步对煤炭消费物质流及煤炭工业全生命周期碳流通进行分析，最后使用MDI模型对我国煤炭工业碳排放的驱动因素进行解析。结果表明：① 2000—2020年中国煤炭工业碳排放量年均增长6.39%，其中加工转换阶段为煤炭工业碳排放的主要贡献者，其碳排放量从129623万t增加到500365万t，年均增长6.99%。② 2020年煤炭工业各子行业碳排放从大到小依次为：煤发电工业(53.41%)、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业(17.88%)、煤制热工业(9.73%)、非金属矿物制品业(5.86%)、化学原料及化学制品制造业(5.86%)、煤炼焦工业(1.35%)等。③ 对煤炭工业碳排放表现为正向驱动效应的因素为经济发展(1179835万t)、碳强度(120579万t)、人口规模(58985万t)；对煤炭工业碳排放表现为负向抑制效应的因素为能源效率(−523272万t)、能源结构(−149807万t)、产业结构(−141118万t)。研究是对算清煤炭供需“大账”需求的重要响应，有助于靶向制定煤炭工业减排降碳引导策略，助推煤炭工业“双碳”战略尽快实现。

Coal industry’s low-carbon transformation is both an inherent requirement for achieving high-quality development and a crucial lever for implementing the national “dual-carbon” strategy goals. “Dual-carbon” goals have raised higher requirements for carbon emissions reduction in the coal industry. Accurate control of the current status of emission reduction and carbon reduction in the coal industry is the foundation and prerequisite for achieving the “dual-carbon” goals with high quality. This study aims to investigate the carbon emissions and influencing factors throughout the full life-cycle of the coal industry. This study focuses on the Chinese coal industry, and aims to calculate the carbon emissions from the coal industry across four stages: mining and washing, transportation, processing and conversion, and consumption and utilization. Furthermore, an analysis of coal consumption material flow and carbon circulation throughout the full life-cycle of the coal industry will be conducted. Finally, the MDI model will be used to analyze the driving factors of carbon emissions in China’s coal industry. The results show that: ① The carbon emissions of China’s coal industry increased by 6.39% annually from 2000 to 2020, with the processing and conversion stage being the main contributor to the carbon emissions of the coal industry, whose carbon emissions increased from 1296.23 million tons to 5003.65 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 6.99%. ② In 2020, the carbon emissions of each sub-industry of the coal industry in descending order were: coal power generation industry (53.41%), ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry (17.88%), coal-based heating industry (9.73%), non-metallic mineral products industry (5.86%), raw chemical materials and chemical products manufacture industry (5.86%), coal coking industry (1.35%), etc. ③ The positive driving factors of carbon emissions of the coal industry are economic development (11798.35 million tons), carbon strength (1205.79 million tons) and population size (589.85 million tons), and the negative inhibiting factors of carbon emissions of coal industry are energy efficiency (−5232.72 million tons), energy structure (−1498.07 million tons), and industrial structure (−1411.18 million tons). This study is an important response to the need for the accurate calculation of coal supply and demand. It contributes to the targeted formulation of emission reduction and carbon reduction guidance strategies in the coal industry, and promotes the realization of the “dual-carbon” strategy in the coal industry.

中国工程院战略咨询资助项目(2022-XBZD-09, 2022-DFZD-18)；煤炭安全精准开采国家地方联合工程研究中心(安徽理工大学)开放基金资助项目(EC2021009)

李姗姗，袁亮. 煤炭工业全生命周期碳排放核算与影响因素[J]. 煤炭学报，2023，48(7)：2925−2935.

LI Shanshan，YUAN Liang. Carbon emission accounting and influencing factors for whole life cycle of coal industry[J]. Journal of China Coal Society，2023，48(7)：2925−2935.