School of Digital Economics and Management, Suzhou City University
School of Economics and Management, China University of Mining and Technology

推动能耗双控逐步转向碳排放双控是实现“双碳”目标的内在要求。数字经济作为推进环境政策转型的重要抓手,对碳排放双控的影响效应及机制亟待研究。基于绿色增长与绿色创新双重视角,利用2011—2020年中国287个地级市的面板数据,实证检验了数字经济发展对碳排放总量和强度的作用效果,并揭示其背后机制。研究发现:①现阶段,数字经济发展仅降低了碳排放强度,并没有实现“碳双控”目标,且这一结论经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。②机制检验结果表明,数字经济发展主要通过提升绿色全要素生产率间接影响碳排放总量,而对于碳排放强度的间接效应则主要通过激励绿色技术创新和提升绿色全要素生产率这2条路径实现。③异质性分析表明,在国家先行试验区,数字经济发展对碳排放双控具有显著的积极作用。据此,从缩小城间数字经济发展差距,改善绿色技术创新环境等方面,针对数字经济发展和碳排放双控政策的制定提出合理化建议,以期为中国释放数字经济减排潜力,尽快实现“碳双控”目标提供理论依据与决策支撑。

Promoting the shift from double control of energy consumption to double control of carbon emission is an intrinsic requirementfor achieving the “ dual carbon” goals. As a key driver in advancing the transformation of environmental policies, the impact andmechanisms of digital economy on double control of carbon emission require urgent investigation. This study empirically examines theinfluence of digital economic development on carbon emissions using panel data from 287 prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to2020. It unveils the mechanism from the dual perspectives of green growth and green innovation, focusing on both total emissions andintensity. The findings are as follows: 1) Currently, the digital economy only reduces carbon emission intensity and hasn’t achieved the“dual carbon control” goal, consistent with robustness test results. 2) Mechanism test results indicate that the digital economy primarilyaffects the total amount of carbon emissions indirectly by enhancing green total factor productivity. The indirect effect on carbon emissionintensity is mainly through encouraging green technological innovation and enhancing green total factor productivity. 3) Heterogeneityanalysis reveals that in the national pilot zones, the digital economy significantly positively impacts double control of carbon emission. Topromptly achieve the “dual carbon control” goals and unlock the emission reduction potential of the digital economy, this paper proposesrational policies for digital economy development and double control of carbon emission.

江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究项目(2022SJYB1519);江苏社会科学基金(20JD012);江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究项目(二十大专项)(SJZT202319)