Management School, Xian University of Science and Technology

能源接续是在能源供需紧张时通过优化能源结构、加强能源储备和提高能源利用效率等手段以保证能源持续供应,从而有效应对能源供应中断可能导致的生产停滞、社会混乱和安全风险增加等国家安全和区域战略问题。长期以来,我国尚未建立区域能源接续应急响应能力的量化指标和评价体系,缺乏对区域能源接续应急能力的科学评价和定量分析。以陕西省为例,从煤炭、石油天然气、一次电力能源、综合能源应急响应能力4个维度构建了区域能源接续应急响应能力评价指标体系,为进一步拓展区域能源接续应急响应研究理论,引入更为客观的云模型综合评价方法,在云模型评价方法的基础上设计了综合评价方法,通过实证研究证明了该方法的可行性和可靠性。最后,根据研究结果立足陕西省能源接续现状,提出相应的对策和建议。

Energy continuity is to ensure the continuous supply of energy by optimizing the energy structure, strengthening energy reserves and improving energy efficiency when energy supply and demand are tight, so as to cope with the problems of production stagnation, social chaos and increased security risks that may be caused by the interruption of energy supply, which has been escalated into a national security and regional strategic issue. For a long time, China has not established a quantitative index and evaluation system for regional energy continuity emergency response capacity, and there is a lack of scientific evaluation and quantitative analysis of regional energy continuity emergency response capacity. In order to further expand the research theory of regional energy continuity emergency response, a more objective cloud model comprehensive evaluation method is introduced, and a comprehensive evaluation method is designed on the basis of the cloud model evaluation method, and the feasibility and reliability of the method are proved through empirical research. Propose corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.

陕西省软科学研究项目(2019KRM016);西安科技大学哲学社会科学繁荣发展项目(2018SY03)