矿井涌水量的预测对煤矿的安全生产具有重要意义。水文地质参数的准确选择、计算方法的选择对矿井涌水量的准确预测影响巨大，同时考虑到矿井开采实际，涌水量不是从开采初期就稳定不变的，而是动态变化的。为提升涌水量预测的准确度，更好地为煤矿开采服务，在分析新疆东沟煤矿地质及水文地质条件，选取准确水文地质参数的基础上，选择了2种适用于东沟煤矿的涌水量预测方法进行了对比分析。计算结果表明：① 非稳定流释水−断面流法计算得到的涌水量呈现动态变化特征，采掘强度稳定后，变化幅度变小，最后趋于稳定；② 采用大井法、非稳定流释水−断面流法计算得到的预测涌水量分别为3 396 、599.87～612.9 m³/d与实际涌水量480 m³/d分别相差607.5%>24.97%～27.69%；③ 根据矿井实际开采产生的涌水量数据验证分析，采用非稳定流释水−断面流法计算得到的涌水量与实际开采产生的涌水量基本吻合，涌水量预测结果的准确度依次为非稳定流释水−断面流法>大井法；④ 在资料充足、参数准确的情况下，建议优先选择非稳定流释水−断面流法计算涌水量，在补水边界条件差且符合大井法要求的条件下建议首先选用大井法。本次计算结果一方面充分验证了非稳定流释水−断面流法的准确度，另一方面为煤矿矿井涌水量计算提供了借鉴，同时也为东沟煤矿的安全生产提供了数据支撑。

The prediction of mine water inflow is of great significance to the safe production of coal mines. The accurate selection of hydrogeological parameters and the selection of calculation methods have a great influence on the accurate prediction of mine water inflow. At the same time, taking into account the actual mining of the mine, the water inflow is not stable from the early stage of mining, but dynamic. In order to improve the accuracy of water inflow prediction and better serve coal mining, based on the analysis of geological and hydrogeological conditions of Donggou Coal Mine in Xinjiang and the selection of accurate hydrogeological parameters, two water inflow prediction methods suitable for Donggou Coal Mine were selected for comparative analysis. The calculation results show that : ①The water inflow calculated by the unsteady flow water release-section flow method shows dynamic change characteristics. After the mining intensity is stable, the change range becomes smaller and finally tends to be stable. ②The predicted water inflow calculated by the large well method and the unsteady flow water release-section flow method is 3396 m³ / d, 599.87 − 612.9 m³ / d and the actual water inflow 480 m³ / d, respectively. The difference with the actual value is in ascending order of magnitude 607.5 % > 24.97 % − 27.69 % ; ③According to the verification and analysis of the water inflow data generated by the actual mining of the mine, the water inflow calculated by the unsteady flow water release-section flow method is basically consistent with the water inflow generated by the actual mining. The accuracy of the water inflow prediction results is in the order of unsteady flow water release-section flow method > large well method ; ④In the case of sufficient data and accurate parameters, it is recommended to give priority to the unsteady flow release-section flow method to calculate the water inflow. It is recommended to use the large well method first under the condition that the water supply boundary conditions are poor and meet the requirements of the large well method. On the one hand, the calculation results fully verify the accuracy of the unsteady flow release-section flow method. On the other hand, it provides a reference for the calculation of water inflow in coal mines, and also provides data support for the safe production of Donggou Coal Mine.