Economic evaluation and investment decision-making process of deep coalbed methane exploration and development projects
代由进徐凤银王峰马鹏飞杨贇云箭许洁孙潇逸程珊李宇新
DAI Youjin;XU Fengyin;WANG Feng;MA Pengfei;YANG Yun;YUN Jian;XU Jie;SUN Xiaoyi;CHENG Shan;LI Yuxin
中石油煤层气有限责任公司成都理工大学 能源学院(页岩气现代产业学院)成都理工大学 油气藏地质及开发工程全国重点实验室中联煤层气国家工程研究中心有限责任公司中国石油冀东油田公司中国石油集团安全环保技术研究院有限公司中国石油西南油气田安全环保与技术监督研究院
深部煤层气是近年来勘探开发进展迅速且前景极为广阔的一种优质天然气资源,高效开发深部煤层气对于中国成功实现能源转型发展和助力“双碳”目标具有重要战略及现实意义。勘探开发项目经济性的科学合理评价及项目投资决策是实现深部煤层气效益开发中的2个重要而紧迫的难题。结合深部煤层气勘探开发项目及经济评价特点,构建了基于折现现金流方法的评价方法与指标,并将该方法应用于鄂尔多斯盆地东缘大宁—吉县区块典型模拟开发项目A。研究结果表明:该方法具有较强的可操作性,可满足深部煤层气项目投资决策需要;在当前技术经济条件下,鄂尔多斯盆地东缘大宁—吉县区块开发模拟项目A具有较好的经济效益,具备技术经济可行性。通过单因素敏感性分析表明,价格、产量、投资及成本是影响项目经济性的关键因素;通过双因素、三因素及四因素不同组合情景下的压力测试分析结果表明,项目A具有较强的多因素抗风险能力;聚焦价格及产量2个重点风险因素,通过典型情景分析结果表明,灵活的市场价格政策、适度的差异化财政补贴政策、加强基础理论创新、加强工程技术创新对于应对项目重点风险至关重要,是现阶段我国深部煤层气全面快速发展不可或缺的支撑要素。同时,结合近年深部煤层气开发实践,借鉴北美及国内页岩气勘探开发经验,将深部煤层气勘探开发程序划分为选区评价、勘探评价、先导试验和开发生产4个阶段,明确了各阶段主要任务及目标、决策点、对应项目及经济评价方法及项目决策流程,为规范化、高效实施深部煤层气勘探开发项目并积极推动我国深部煤层气产业高质量发展提供有力借鉴。
Deep coalbed methane is a high-quality natural gas resource that has seen rapid exploration and development progress in recent years and holds an extremely promising future. The efficient development of deep coalbed methane has significant strategic and practical importance for China to successfully achieve energy transformation and development and support the "dual carbon" goals. The scientific and reasonable economic evaluation of exploration and development projects and investment decision-making are two crucial and urgent challenges in achieving the efficient development of deep coalbed methane. In light of the characteristics of deep coalbed methane resource development and economic evaluation, an evaluation method and indicators based on the discounted cash flow method are constructed and applied to the typical simulated development project A in Daning-Jixian block on the eastern margin of the Ordos Basin. The research results show that:This method is highly operational and can meet the investment decision-making needs of deep coalbed methane projects.Under the current technical and economic conditions, the simulated development project A in the Daning-Jixian block on the eastern margin of the Ordos Basin has good economic benefits and is technically and economically feasible.The single-factor sensitivity analysis indicates that price, output, investment and cost are the key factors influencing the economic viability of the project. The stress test analysis results under different combinations of two, three and four factors show that Project A has a strong multi-factor risk resistance capacity. Focusing on the two key risk factors of price and output, the typical scenario analysis results indicate that flexible market price policies, moderate differentiated fiscal subsidy policies, strengthening basic theoretical innovation and engineering technological innovation are crucial for addressing the key risks of the project and are indispensable supporting elements for the comprehensive and rapid development of deep coalbed methane in China at the present stage. At the same time, based on the practical experience of deep coalbed methane development in recent years and drawing on the exploration and development experience of shale gas in North America and China, the exploration and development process of deep coalbed methane is divided into four stages: area selection and evaluation, exploration evaluation, pilot test and development. The main tasks and goals, decision points, corresponding projects, economic evaluation methods and project decision-making processes of each stage are clearly defined. This provides a strong reference for the standardized and efficient implementation of deep coalbed methane exploration and development projects and the promotion of high-quality development of China's deep coalbed methane industry.
深部煤层气勘探开发经济评价净现值风险分析项目阶段投资决策流程
deep coalbed methane;exploration and development;economic evaluation;net present value;risk analysis;project stages;investment decision-making process
主办单位:煤炭科学研究总院有限公司 中国煤炭学会学术期刊工作委员会