以黄陇煤田招贤煤矿为例，提出了一种考虑主观决策、客观统计和变权理论修正的离层水害区域危险性预测方法。选取煤层厚度、含水层渗透系数、含水层厚度、含水层单位涌水量、含水层距煤层距离、含水层水头高度、构造、近场顶板岩层泥岩累计厚度等8个主要因素，在层次分析法（AHP）和熵权法（EWM）的基础上，使用变权法（VWM）对常权值修正，建立了招贤一采区离层突水危险性评价数学模型，得到开采前一采区离层突水危险性综合评价指标。结合招贤工程地质条件，采用地面抽排孔控制离层致灾水源。结果表明：提出的基于AHP−EWM−VWM的高位离层突水区域危险性预测方法可以较为准确地定位突水高风险区，综合权重评价结果表明，降低含水层水位高度是防控离层水害的关键措施；实际开展的地面抽排孔抽水有效降低了采区离层突水风险，证明研究对侏罗系煤田离层水害有效防治具有良好的指导意义。

Water inrush from high-position separation layers in the Jurassic coal field represents a novel type of hydraulic disaster, inflicting substantial damage upon coal mines. This study, using Zhaoxian Coal Mine in the Huanglong Coalfield as a case study, introduces a regional risk forecasting methodology that integrates aspects of subjectivity, objectivity, and variable weight theory. Eight principal factors were identified for this analysis:coal seam thickness, aquifer permeability coefficient, distance of the aquifer from the coal seam, aquifer thickness, aquifer’s unit water intake, head height of the aquifer, geological structure, and the cumulative thickness of mudstone in the Yan’an and Zhiluo formations.The study employed the Variable Weight Method (VWM) to adjust the normal weights determined by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Entropy Weight Method (EWM). This led to the development of a mathematical model for water inrush risk assessment in the Zhaoxian No. 1 mining area, culminating in a comprehensive evaluation index for water inrush risk. In conjunction with the engineering geological conditions of Zhaoxian, surface extraction and drainage holes were utilized to precisely manage the water sources of the hazard. The results indicate that the AHP−EWM−VWM method can accurately pinpoint areas at high risk of water inrush. The comprehensive weight evaluation underscores that reducing the aquifer water level is a crucial strategy for preventing and controlling water damage. The implemented surface pumping holes have been effective in mitigating the risk of water inrush in the mining area, demonstrating the study’s significant value in guiding the effective prevention and control of water inrush in the Jurassic coal field.