Study on risk assessment model of coal mine water accident induced by flood disaster
QI Qingjie, SUN Zuo, LIU Wengang, WANG Anhu, YANG Jinghu, LIU Siyun, SUN Lifeng, WANG Wei
煤矿作为承灾体,面对洪水灾害的冲击威胁,脆弱性凸显。洪水不仅会直接导致淹井事故、工业广场破坏等,还会间接诱发井下涌水异常、突水、透水、地下水污染等链生灾害事故。为了定量评估洪水灾害诱发煤矿水害事故风险大小,加强煤矿洪水灾害防治工作,基于灾害风险科学致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体三要素经典理论和煤矿洪水灾害防治现状,构建了煤矿洪水灾害设防情况调查指标体系,建立了洪水灾害诱发煤矿水害事故风险评估模型,并在遵义市桐梓县某煤矿进行了应用验证。研究结果表明:洪水诱发煤矿水害事故风险评估涵盖了致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境稳定性(敏感性)、承灾体脆弱性等灾害风险关键要素。其中,致灾因子危险性评价主要考虑致灾因子的时间分布、空间分布和强度等;孕灾环境稳定性评价主要考虑地形、水系等因素评价孕灾环境对致灾因子的敏感性;承灾体脆弱性主要2两方面因素决定:(1)承灾体对洪水灾害的设防水平,设防水平越高,承灾体脆弱性越低;(2)在孕灾环境中暴露于致灾因子的人员、资产数量,数量越大,承灾体脆弱性越高。通过对该煤矿应用所提出的风险评估模型,得出该煤矿洪水诱发煤矿水害事故的风险等级为低风险。风险评估模型的建立为定量评估洪水诱发煤矿水害事故风险提供了方法,为煤矿做好洪水灾害防治工作提供了新参考。
As a disaster-bearing body, coal mines are vulnerable to the threats of flood disasters and are prone to serious impacts of floods. Floods will not only directly lead to flooding accidents and industrial square destruction, but also indirectly induce abnormal water gushing underground, water permeability, groundwater pollution and other chain disasters. In order to quantitatively assess the risk of coal mine flood accidents caused by flood disasters and strengthen the prevention and control of coal mine flood disasters. Based on the classic theory of three elements of disaster risk science: disaster-causing factors, disaster-pregnant environment, and disaster-bearing body, and the current situation of coal mine flood disaster prevention and control, the investigation index system of flood disaster prevention in coal mine is constructed, and the risk assessment model for flood disaster-induced coal mine water disaster accidents was established, and the application was verified in a coal mine in Tongzi County of Zunyi City. The research shows that the risk assessment of flood-induced coal mine water disasters is a comprehensive assessment of the system risk based on the assessment of the risk of disaster-causing factors, the stability or sensitivity of disaster-pregnant environment and the vulnerability of disaster-bearing body. The time distribution, spatial distribution and intensity of disaster-causing factors are considered in the hazard evaluation of disaster-causing factors. The stability evaluation of disaster-pregnant environment is to evaluate the sensitivity of disaster-pregnant environment to disaster-inducing factors by considering terrain, water system and other factors. The vulnerability of hazard-affected body is determined by two factors and one is the level of flood disaster prevention. The higher the level of prevention is, the lower the vulnerability of hazard-affected body is. The other is the number of people and assets exposed to the disaster-causing factors in the disaster-pregnant environment. And the greater the number is, the higher the vulnerability of the disaster-affected body is. Through the application of the proposed risk assessment model in this Coal Mine, it can be concluded that the risk level of flood-induced coal mine water disasters and accidents in this Coal Mine is low risk. In this paper, the establishment of risk assessment model provides a method for quantitatively evaluating the risk of coal mine water disaster caused by floods. It can provide a new reference for the prevention and control of flood disasters in coal mines.
flood disaster; disaster bearing body; coal mine water accident; risk assessment model; AHP
主办单位:煤炭科学研究总院有限公司 中国煤炭学会学术期刊工作委员会