Huaneng Coal Technology Research Co. , Ltd.
General Prospecting Institute of China National Administration of Coal Geology

我国煤炭生产重点逐步西移，西部鄂尔多斯盆地地区既面临水资源短缺问题，又面临严重的矿井水害威胁。在煤矿采掘过程中，能够精准、动态预测矿井涌水量，是预防矿井涌（突）水事故的关键。目前，煤矿最常用的一些矿井涌水量预测方法，如水均衡法、解析法、相关分析法、水文地质比拟法等，因其局限性导致预测误差较大。在前期研究发现，矿井涌水通常由冒裂二元结构体自身释水与其四周外侧边界对称断面释水叠加而成，释水（冒裂含水层自然疏干）持续时间相对较短，随顶板冒裂周期性发生，是间歇性的；边界过水断面汇（渗）水通常是持续的。核桃峪煤矿8号煤开采导水裂隙带直接向上发育能够导通洛河组下段含水层而导致承压水涌入矿井，成为矿井涌水主要威胁。为了精准、动态预测其矿井涌水量，基于前期研究推导的矿井涌水量预测“释水－断面流”公式，充分考虑矿井采掘以及顶板覆岩移动特征，根据顶板岩层冒裂规律对鄂尔多斯盆地南部核桃峪煤矿矿井涌水量进行动态预测。预测结果与实测涌水量相比，其相对误差为11%～23%，较传统解析法的计算精度显著提高。研究成果可为工作面回采过程中不同阶段矿井涌水量的动态预测提供方法基础，为矿井防治水工作开展和合理配备防排水设施提供依据。

The focus of coal production in China is gradually moving westward, and the western Ordos Basin is facing not only the shortage of water resources, but also the serious threat of mine water disaster. In the process of coal mining, accurate and dynamic prediction of mine water inflow is the key to prevent mine water inflow accidents. At present, some of the most commonly used prediction methods of mine water inflow, such as water balance method, analytical method, correlation analysis method, hydrogeological analogy method, etc., have large prediction errors due to their limitations. In the previous study, the author’s team found that the water gushing in the mine is usually superposed by the water release from the spalling-binary structure itself and the water release from the symmetrical section around the outer boundary. The duration of the water release (natural drainage of the spalling-aquifer) is relatively short, and it occurs periodically with the spalling-roof and is intermittent. The boundary crossing section is usually continuous. The direct upward development of No. 8 coal drainage fracture zone in Hetaoyu Coal Mine can lead to confined water flooding into the mine and become the main threat to mine water flooding. In order to accurately and dynamically predict the mine water inflow, based on the “water-release - cross section flow” formula derived from the previous research of the author’s team, the dynamic prediction of mine water inflow in Hetaoyu Coal mine in the south of Ordos Basin is carried out according to the fracture law of the roof strata, taking full account of the characteristics of mine mining and roof overburden movement. Compared with the measured water inflow, the relative error of the predicted results is 11%～23%, which is significantly higher than that of the traditional analytical method. It provides the method basis for the dynamic prediction of mine water inflow in different stages of mining, and provides the basis for the work of mine water prevention and control and reasonable installation of anti-drainage facilities.

华能集团总部科技资助项目（HNKJ20-H49）

周全超，郑洁铭，傅耀军，等. “释水－断面流”法在矿井涌水量预测中的应用−以鄂尔多斯盆地南缘核桃峪煤矿为例[J]. 煤炭科学技术，2023，51（S1）：310−317.

ZHOU Quanchao，ZHENG Jieming，FU Yaojun，et al. Application of “water release cross section flow” method in mine water inflow prediction——Taking Hetaoyu Coal mine in the southern margin of Ordos Basin as an example[J]. Coal Science and Technology，2023，51（S1）：310−317.