College of Economics and Management, Taiyuan University of Technology

结合复杂适应系统(CAS)理论,将煤层气开发中社会生态系统风险防范视为复杂适应过程,对其风险防范主体(压力主体、响应主体和状态主体)、复杂适应性特征(自适应性、网络性和多样性)进行分析。基于CAS回声模型构建煤层气开发中社会生态系统主体的动态协同防范模式,进一步运用复杂系统建模和仿真的方法,建立不同协同程度的防范系统并测试其风险防范能力。结果表明:①在煤层气开发中,压力、响应和状态3个主体可通过识别标识、选择性交互、标识优化、效果反馈实现协同防范,并在防范过程中不断自我学习,提升基本设防能力、应急管理能力、风险转移能力和救灾救济能力,最终涌现进化为高级稳定防范系统,从而实现对社会生态环境的适应。②可以用相位差函数表征两两标识之间的协同程度,随着压力、响应和状态3个主体防范系统的协同程度提高,系统的抗风险能力也增强,且打击力度越大增强效果越显著。研究可为煤层气开发中社会生态系统风险防范提供一定的理论基础。

Combined with the Complex Adaptive System ( CAS) theory, the risk prevention of social ecosystem in Coalbed Methane(CBM) development is regarded as a complex adaptation process, and the risk prevention subjects (pressure subject, response subjectand state subject) and complex adaptability characteristics (self-adaptability, network and diversity) are analyzed. Based on CAS echomodel, the dynamic cooperative prevention pattern of social ecosystem main body in CBM development is constructed. Further, themethod of complex system modeling and simulation is used to establish the prevention system with different degree of cooperation and test itsrisk prevention ability. The results showed that: 1) In CBM development, the three main bodies of pressure, response and state canachieve coordinated prevention through identification, selective interaction, sign optimization and effect feedback, and constantly learnfrom themselves in the process of prevention to improve basic prevention capability, emergency management ability, risk transfer abilityand disaster relief ability. Finally, this system emergence and evolve into an advanced stability prevention system to achieve adaptation tothe social and ecological environment. 2) The phase difference function can be used to represent the degree of coordination betweenpairwise signs. With the improvement of the degree of coordination between the three main bodies of pressure, response and state, the anti-risk ability of the system is also enhanced, and the greater the impact, the more significant the effect. This study can provide atheoretical basis for the prevention of social ecosystem risk in Coalbed Methane (CBM) development.

国家软科学研究计划项目(2011GXS2D017);山西省软科学基金项目(2017041025-2);山西省高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(2017314);山西省科技战略研究专项项目(202204031401053)