Guangdong Energy Group Science and Technology Research Institute Co.,Ltd.
Guangdong Energy Group Co.,Ltd.
School of Energy and Power Engineering,Huazhong University of Science And Technology

化学链燃烧(CLC)被认为是最有前途的碳捕集利用和封存技术之一,其成本是走向商业应用必须考虑的一个重要因素,但目前尚无对CLC燃煤发电技术进行成本变化预测的相关研究。对CLC燃煤电站(2×350MW)进行技术经济性分析,得到CLC改造电站的发电成本为419.595元/MWh,二氧化碳减排成本和碳捕集成本分别为96.142、85.847元/t(以CO2计,下同)。为预测CLC燃煤电站的投资成本变化趋势,提出一种新的学习速率模型并获得双因子学习曲线。然后考虑基准、高速、低速3种技术发展情景,对CLC技术的中长期成本进行预测。结果显示,随着累计装机容量和研发投入的增加,发电成本将逐步下降。基准情景下CLC电站的发电成本可下降至311.767元/MWh,降幅在100元/MWh以上;高速情景下CLC电站的单位投资成本降至2593.789元/kW,接近传统燃煤电站水平,发电成本降至202.689元/MWh,与常规CFB电站相比成本优势明显。

Chemical looping combustion (CLC) is regarded as one of the most promising technology options for carbon dioxide capture,utilization and storage. However, there is no relevant study on dynamic cost prediction and systematic cost reduction trend analysis of CLCtechnology. A techno-economic analysis of CLC retrofitted coal-fired power plant (2×350 MW) was carried out, and it was found that thepower generation cost was 419.595 ￥ / MWh. The CO avoidance cost and CO capture cost were 96.142 ￥ / t and 85.847 ￥ / t, respectively. In order to predict the change trend of the cost of CLC power plant, a new learning rate model was proposed and a two-factor learning curve was obtained. Then the medium/ long term costs of CLC technology was predicted by considering three technology developmentscenarios: high speed, baseline and low speed. The results show that as the cumulative installed capacity of the power plant and the cumulative research and development investment are improved, the power generation costs of the power plant are gradually reduced. In thebenchmark scenario, the cost of power generation has dropped to 311.767 ￥ / MWh, with a drop of over 100 ￥ / MWh. Under the high-speed development scenario, the unit investment cost of CLC power plant will be reduced to 2 593.789 ￥ / kW, which is close to the levelof traditional coal-fired power plants.

国家重点研发计划资助项目(2021YFF0601001);湖北省重点研发计划资助项目(2022BCA087)

叶骥,陈创庭,黄慧,等.基于双因子学习曲线模型的化学链燃煤电站技术经济性[J].洁净煤技术,2024,30(8):82-89.

YE Ji,CHEN Chuangting,HUANG Hui,et al.Cost analysis of chemical looping coal-fired power plant based on a doublefactors learning curve model[J].Clean Coal Technology,2024,30(8):82-89.