National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Green Vehicles and Transportation,Tsinghua University

电动化是汽车行业未来重要的发展方向,电动汽车市场的增长将扩大关键矿产资源的需求。中国作为电动汽车第一大生产国,需关注关键资源供应的安全性和可持续性。电动汽车渗透率、电池化学体系和电池容量等因素极大影响着关键资源的需求和回收潜力,然而现有研究往往未重视商用车领域未来大规模电动化的影响。搭建了一个自底向上的商用车关键资源需求模型,以车型款式为基础,预测了多种情景下关键资源的需求量。结果表明,相较于中型货车和客车,轻型货车和重型货车对关键资源的需求较高。在基准情景下,到2060年锂资源的累积需求量约为30万～40万t,通过退役动力电池回收,可以将对一次锂资源的需求降至10万～25万t。还进一步讨论了燃料电池汽车在重型商用车领域大规模应用对于关键金属资源需求的影响。在关键资源供应风险不断上升的背景下,鼓励动力电池闭环回收,燃料电池汽车等替代技术发展来缓解电动汽车对于关键资源的需求,对于保障资源安全至关重要。

Electrification is an important future development direction for the automotive industry,and the growth of the electric vehicle market will expand the demand for key mineral resources. As the largest producer of EVs,China needs to pay attention to the security and sustainability of key resource supply. Factors such as EV penetration rate,battery chemistry,and battery capacity significantly impact the demand for and recycling potential of key resources. However,existing research often fails to address the impact of large-scale electrification in the commercial vehicle sector. This study establishes a bottom-up model for forecasting the demand for key resources in commercial vehicles,based on vehicle types,across various scenarios. The results indicate that light trucks and heavy-duty trucks have higher demands for key resources compared to medium-sized trucks and buses. In the baseline scenario,the cumulative demand for lithium resources by 2060 is about 30-40 mt,and through decommissioning power battery recycling,the demand for primary lithium resources can be reduced to 10-25 mt. The study further discusses the impact of large-scale adoption of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) in heavy-duty commercial vehicles on the demand for critical metal resources. Amidst rising risks in key resource supply,encouraging closed-loop recycling of power batteries and developing alternative technologies such as FCVs to mitigate EVs’ reliance on key resources is crucial for ensuring resource security.

康庭源, 郝瀚. 中国商用车电动化的关键矿产资源影响. 煤炭经济研究. 2024, 44(10): 76-85

KANG Tingyuan, HAO Han. The impact of commercial vehicle electrification on critical material dynamics in China. Coal Economic Research. 2024, 44(10): 76-85