社会各界对规模化全流程CCUS−EOR项目经济性及其他相关重要问题认识不足,不利于跨行业、跨地区、跨部门项目实施。中国CCUS/CCS项目累积注入二氧化碳量超过1000万t,积累了丰富项目运营经验;基于我国驱油类CCUS产业链技术现状和成熟度分析,认为在鄂尔多斯盆地有序开展规模化全流程CCUS项目技术可行,结合区域油藏地质特点,提出边学习经验、边工程建设、边运行项目、边认识规律、边调整方案的复杂油藏CCUS滚动建设模式;选择陕西榆林—安塞—定边地区煤化工碳源与代表性油藏,开展了基于管道输送的300万吨级CCUS项目方案设计和投资概算;用改进的全流程CCUS项目经济评价模型,分析基准收益率、财税金融政策、碳交易价格、产量不确定性等可控变量对项目经济性的影响,对比若干规模化CCUS项目的临界效益井口碳价,提出统一产业链各环节经济评价基准收益率有助于三跨型CCUS项目合作,实施绿色低息贷款可降低CCUS−EOR项目临界效益油价,采取“后CCUS项目交易、埋存量下限交易、埋存减量绿色补偿”可解决CCUS项目碳交易争议,严格CO2驱油试验选区可进一步改善项目经济性,以上核心产业政策建议有助于推进鄂尔多斯盆地CCUS技术规模化应用。

Under the premise of carbon neutrality, various sectors of society have high expectations for petroleum enterprises to usecarbon for carbon sequestration,but there is insufficient understanding of the economic feasibility of the cross industry,cross regional,and cross departmental large scale full process CCUS−EOR project. CCUS/CCS projects in China have injected over 10 million tons ofcarbon dioxide into geological bodies such as oil reservoirs,accumulating rich project operation experience. Based on the analysis of thecurrent technological status and maturity of various links in China's oil recovery CCUS industry chain,it is technically feasible to orderlycarry out large-scale and full process CCUS projects in the Ordos Basin. Based on the geological characteristics of regional oil reservoirs,aCCUS rolling construction model for complex oil reservoirs was proposed, which involves learning from experience, engineeringconstruction,project operation,understanding the laws of production,and adjusting development plans simultaneously. Subsequently,the coal chemical carbon source and oil reservoir in the Yulin-Ansai-Dingbian area of Shanxi Province were selected and a 3 million tonsCCUS project based on pipeline transportation scheme design and investment estimate were carried out. Using an improved full processCCUS project economic evaluation model,the impact of controllable key variables such as benchmark rate of return,fiscal and financialpolicies, carbon trading prices, and production uncertainty on the economic viability of large-scale CCUS projects was analyzed and evaluated. The critical benefit of wellhead carbon prices for several large-scale CCUS projects was compared. Finally,proposing a unified economic evaluation benchmark and internal rate of return for each link in the industrial chain is helpful for the cooperation of Three Cross CCUS projects. Implementing green low interest loans can reduce the critical benefit oil price of CCUS−EOR projects. Adopting the policy of “only allowing trading of post CCUS projects,only allowing trading of the lower limit of buried inventory,and requiring green compensation for the reduced buried inventory” can solve the carbon trading dispute of CCUS projects. Strictly selecting CO2 flooding test areas can further improve the economic efficiency of projects. The above industrialization development policy recommendations are conducive to promoting the large-scale application of CCUS technology in the Ordos Basin.

0 引言

1 技术可行性分析

   1.1 规模化CCUS−EOR项目技术可行性

2 规模化CCUS−EOR项目方案设计

   2.1 项目选址依据

   2.2 项目方案要点

   2.3 项目投资概算

3 全流程CCUS−EOR项目经济性分析

   3.1 经济评价方法

   3.2 项目经济性分析

   3.3 大型项目的临界效益井口碳价对比

4 结论