College of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Shandong University of Science and Technology
Shandong University of Science and Technology, Key Laboratory of Sedimentary Mineralization and Sedimentary Minerals in Shandong Province
Shandong Shengyuan Geological Exploration Co. , Ltd

针对煤层底板突水危险性评价模型中主控因素赋权问题,提出了一种基于模糊层次分析法(FDAHP)、熵权法(EWM)与偏差平方和法(SSD)组合赋权的脆弱性指数模型。以良庄井田15煤层底板奥灰突水危险性评价为例,选取含水层富水性、含水层水压、隔水层厚度、脆塑性岩石厚度比、断层交点和尖灭点密度、断层强度指数等6个主控因素。采用FDAHP法和EWM法分别确定主控因素的主、客观权重,并利用SSD法有效融合主、客观权重构建最优组合权重。在此基础上,建立脆弱性指数模型对煤层底板突水危险性进行评价,将研究区划分为4大区域:安全区、过渡区、危险区、强危险区。结果表明,该方法将主控因素主观、客观权重有效融合,突水危险性评价结果与工程实践相吻合,预测效果较好,为煤层底板突水危险性评价提供了新思路。

A vulnerability index model based on the combination of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FDAHP), entropy weight method(EWM), and sum of squares deviation method(SSD) was proposed to address the weighting issue in the current risk assessment model for water inrush from coal seam floor. Taking the risk assessment of Ordovician limestone water inrush from the floor of the No. 15 coal seam in Liangzhuang mine field as an example, six main control factors were selected, including water abundance of the aquifer, water pressure of the aquifer, thickness of the impermeable layer, thickness ratio of brittle plastic rocks, density of fault intersections and pinch points, and fault strength index. The FDAHP method and EWM method were used to determine the subjective and objective weights of the main control factors, and the SSD method was used to effectively integrate the subjective and objective weights to construct the optimal combination weights. On this basis, a vulnerability index model was established to evaluate the risk of water inrush from the coal seam floor, and the research area was divided into four major areas: safe zone, transition zone, risk zone, and high - risk zone. This method effectively integrated subjective and objective weights of the main control factors, and the evaluation results of water inrush risk were consistent with engineering practice. The prediction effect was good, providing a new idea for the evaluation of water inrush risk in coal seam floor.

国家自然科学基金项目(51804184);山东省自然科学基金(ZR2020KE023)

邱梅,赵建飞,邵振东,等.基于组合赋权法和脆弱性指数模型的煤层底板突水危险性评价[J].煤炭工程,2025,57(1):160-168.