School of Management Science and Engineering,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics

数字经济发展能否缓解碳诅咒是值得深入研究的问题。结合中国城市发展的典型事实,提出了碳诅咒的传导机制及数据经济的调节效应假说,利用2011—2021年中国269个地级市的面板数据,实证检验了数字经济对碳诅咒的影响机制,并进行一系列的稳健性检验和异质性分析。研究发现:① 自然资源依赖对碳排放强度产生正向影响,中国城市层面确实存在碳排放强度诅咒;② 自然资源依赖通过挤出人力资本、遏制技术创新等提升了碳排放强度;③ 数字经济对自然资源依赖和碳排放强度的关系有显著的负向调节作用,特别地,数字经济可以显著缓解成长型及成熟型资源型城市的“碳诅咒”;④ 从作用机制来看,数字经济通过弱化自然资源依赖对人力资本和技术创新的挤出效应,有利地促进了碳排放强度的下降。在成长型及成熟型资源型城市更应该大力发展数字经济,同时应强化人力资本积累、推动先进节能技术开发、促进能源结构转型,以有效缓解“碳诅咒”。

Whether the development of the digital economy can alleviate carbon curse is worthy discussing.Based on the typical characteristics of China's urban development,this study proposes transmission mechanisms for the carbon curse and hypothesizes the moderating effect of the digital economy. Using panel data from 269 prefecture-level cities in China spanning 2011-2021,the study empirically examines the impact mechanism of the digital economy on the carbon curse and conducts a series of robustness tests and heterogeneity analysis. The key findings are as follows:① Dependence on natural resources significantly increases carbon intensity,confirming the existence of a carbon curse at the urban level in China.② Natural resource dependence exacerbates carbon intensity by crowding out human capital and inhibiting technological innovation.③ The digital economy has a significant negative effect on the relationship between natural resource dependence and carbon intensity,the alleviating effect of carbon curse is more significant in growing and mature resource-based cities.④ Mechanistically,the digital economy weakens the adverse effects of natural resource dependence on human capital and technological innovation,facilitating a reduction in carbon intensity. To effectively alleviate the carbon curse,efforts should focus on promoting the development of the digital economy,especially in growing and mature resource-based cities,enhancing human capital accumulation,advancing energy-efficient technologies,and accelerating the transition to cleaner energy structures.

刘畅, 刘诗淼, 侯佳宏. 数字经济能否缓解“碳诅咒”. 煤炭经济研究. 2025, 45(1): 35-43

LIU Chang, LIU Shimiao, HOU Jiahong. Can digital economy alleviate carbon curse?. Coal Economic Research. 2025, 45(1): 35-43