School of Economics, Xiamen University

科学系统评价新型电力系统发展状况是先立后破推动新时代能源革命的重要抓手。基于2015—2022年31个省级行政单位面板数据,围绕“清洁低碳、安全充裕、经济高效、供需协同、灵活智能”五大要求和源网荷储四大环节,采用熵权法测算了新型电力系统发展综合指数,并通过Dagum基尼系数和核聚类方法评估了区域差异的表现、来源以及分布演进。结果显示:研究期间内,各地新型电力系统发展水平均稳步增长;实现清洁低碳和供需协同要求,以及推动电源侧和电网侧发展,是增长的主要动力;区域差异呈现出扩大态势,区域间差异取代区域内差异成为差异的主要来源。满足灵活智能要求、实现负荷侧及储能侧发展将成为未来推动新型电力系统发展和缩小区域差距的关键力量。

The scientific and systematic evaluation of the development status of the new Electricity system is an important tool for promoting the energy revolution in the new era. Based on the panel data of 31 provincial administrative units from 2015 to 2022, focusing on the five requirements of “clean and low-carbon, secure and abundant, economic and efficient, coordinated supply and demand, flexible and intelligent”, and the four main links of source, grid, load and storage, this paper adopts the entropy weighting method to calculate the comprehensive index of the development of the new electricity system, and evaluates the performance of regional differences, their sources and their distribution evolution by using the Dagum Gini coefficient and kernel clustering method. The results show that: during the study period, the development level of the new electricity system was steadily increasing in all regions. Realizing the requirements of “clean and low-carbon” and “coordinated supply and demand”, as well as promoting the development of the source and the grid, are the main driving forces. The regional differences showed a widening trend, with interregional differences replacing intraregional differences as the main source of differences. Satisfying the requirements of flexibility and intelligence, and realizing the development of the load and the storage will be the key forces driving the development of new electricity systems and reducing regional disparities in the future.

国家社会科学基金重大项目(21&ZD109)

孙传旺, 左旭光. 中国新型电力系统发展综合评价体系及区域差异分析. 煤炭经济研究. 2025, 45(1): 122-131

SUN Chuanwang, ZUO Xuguang. Comprehensive evaluation system for the development of the new electricity system in China and analysis of regional differences. Coal Economic Research. 2025, 45(1): 122-131