Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology
School of Management, Beijing Institute of Technology
School of Business, Chengdu University of Technology
State Grid Economic and Technological Research Institute Co., Ld.
State Grid Hebei Construction Company

构建以光能风能等清洁能源为主体的能源供应体系是实现碳达峰目标的必要途径,然而近年来极端天气事件频发,使得风光资源发电出力不稳定性日益加剧,进而对电力系统的稳定运行构成挑战。现有研究对风光发电不确定性评估尚未充分模拟极端天气影响,未能充分挖掘极端天气影响下风光互补发电系统的平稳性提升潜力。重点针对沙尘暴极端天气,基于变异系数法构建极端天气下风光发电模型与极端天气下风光发电平稳性与适应性评估模型,通过对主要受灾省份的风光发电潜力进行评估,确定了因地制宜的最优风光装机比例,研究了当地风光互补发电系统最佳平稳性水平,分析了各省份对风光比例调整的敏感度,探讨了与敏感程度相匹配的省际输电传送方法。研究结果表明,在沙尘暴极端天气影响下,各省风能太阳能发电潜力均有明显下降,降幅介于7.48%～16.09%。其中风光能源发电占比较大的内蒙古、新疆二省,同正常日相比降幅高达14.47%和16.09%。通过优化风光装机比例,风光互补发电系统出力不稳定性下降12.1%～34.9%,平稳性显著上升,可实现全年发电平稳性最好、风-光互补性最佳。建议根据各省的风光资源特点制定因地制宜的风光装机比例以降低极端天气下发电不稳定性,基于风光互补发电系统平稳性的敏感度进行输电规划。

Constructing an energy supply system primarily based on renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power is a necessary pathway to achieve the carbon peak target. However, extreme weather events have increased the variability of wind and solar power generation, challenging grid stability. Prior research has not adequately assessed extreme weather impacts on the stability of wind-solar hybrid renewable energy systems. This study focuses on dust storms, developing models for wind and solar generation and stability under extreme conditions. It evaluates the generation potential in affected provinces, determining optimal wind-solar ratios and system stability levels. Corresponding inter-provincial power transmission methods are discussed based on the sensitivity of wind-solar complementary power generation systems. Under the influence of dust storm extreme weather, the potential for wind and solar power generation in each province has significantly decreased, with a reduction ranging from 7.48% to 16.09%. Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, which have a larger proportion of wind and solar energy generation, saw a reduction of up to 14.47% and 16.09% compared to normal days, respectively. By optimizing the wind-solar installation ratio, the instability of the wind-solar complementary power generation system′s output decreased by 12.1% to 34.9%, with a significant increase in stability, achieving the best annual power generation stability and the best wind-solar complementarity. It is recommended to formulate wind-solar installation ratios adapted to local conditions based on the characteristics of wind and solar resources in each province to reduce the instability of power generation under extreme weather conditions, and to plan power transmission based on the sensitivity of wind-solar complementary power generation systems.

国家电网公司总部科技项目(5200-202456112A-1-1-ZN)

曲然, 许沛昀, 唐葆君, 李茹, 冯虎臣, 王硕, 宋兆鑫, 杨艳会. 极端天气下风光互补发电系统平稳性研究及输电规划建议——以沙尘暴事件影响为例. 煤炭经济研究. 2025, 45(2): 59-67

QU Ran, XU Peiyun, TANG Baojun, LI Ru, FENG Huchen, WANG Shuo , SONG Zhaoxin, YANG Yanhui. Research on the stability of wind-solar hybrid power generation system under extreme weather and suggestions on transmission planning: Taking the impact of sandstorm events as an example. Coal Economic Research. 2025, 45(2): 59-67