School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum
Research Center for China′s Oil and Gas Industry Development,China University of Petroleum
Institute of Carbon Neutrality and Innovative Energy Development,China University of Petroleum

建设以可再生能源为中心的清洁、低碳、安全且高效的现代能源体系,是实现中国碳中和目标的重要支撑。构建了统一的氢气生产途径成本比较框架,并分析了在纳入碳成本的情况下,各类氢气生产途径的净零成本。结果表明:① 在当前技术水平下,未考虑碳排放成本时,灰氢、蓝氢和绿氢的生产成本分别为1.4～4.4 USD/kg H₂、2.0～4.9 USD/kg H₂和7.5～8.3 USD/kg H₂;② 每生产1 kg氢气,灰氢、蓝氢和绿氢的碳排放量分别为5～20 kg CO₂eq、4～6 kg CO₂eq和1～3 kg CO₂eq,绿氢碳排放最低,展现出显著的低碳优势;③ 纳入碳成本后,当碳成本为 12.57USD/t CO₂e时,灰氢和蓝氢生产中煤制氢及加装CCS的煤制氢净零成本最低,绿氢净零成本最高,仅在电价低至弃电价格时具有成本竞争力;当碳成本升至37 USD/t CO₂e时,最低电价下的绿氢净零成本与蓝氢最高的净零成本相当,且随着碳成本进一步增加,绿氢中以风电为电源的电解水制氢技术展现出绝对的净零成本优势;当碳成本达到200 USD/t CO₂e时,灰氢中煤制氢失去成本优势,甲烷自热重整技术成本最低,此时绿氢较蓝氢技术最高净零成本低,具有显著成本竞争力。

The construction of a modern, clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system centered on renewable energy is an important support for realizing China's goal of carbon neutrality. This study establishes a unified cost comparison framework for hydrogen production pathways and analyzes the net-zero costs of various hydrogen production methods when carbon costs are included. The results indicate that:① At the current technological level,without considering carbon emission costs,the production costs of gray hydrogen,blue hydrogen,and green hydrogen are 1.4～4.4 USD/kg H₂,2.0～4.9 USD/kg H₂,and 7.5～8.3 USD/kg H₂,respectively.② The carbon emissions per kilogram of hydrogen production are 5～20 kg CO₂ eq for gray hydrogen,4～6 kg CO₂ eq for blue hydrogen,and 1～3 kg CO₂ eq for green hydrogen. Green hydrogen exhibits the lowest carbon emissions,highlighting its significant low-carbon advantage.③ When carbon costs are included,at a carbon price of 12.57 USD/t CO₂e,coal-based hydrogen and coal-based hydrogen with CCS in gray and blue hydrogen production demonstrate the lowest net-zero costs,while green hydrogen remains the most expensive,only achieving cost competitiveness at very low electricity prices (e.g.,curtailed electricity prices). When the carbon price increases to 37 USD/t CO₂e,the net-zero cost of green hydrogen at the lowest electricity price becomes comparable to the highest-cost blue hydrogen. As carbon prices continue to rise,electrolysis-based green hydrogen powered by wind energy demonstrates an absolute net-zero cost advantage. At a carbon price of 200 USD/t CO₂e,coal-based gray hydrogen loses its cost advantage,and methane autothermal reforming (ATR) achieves the lowest cost. At this point,green hydrogen costs become lower than the highest-cost blue hydrogen,exhibiting significant cost competitiveness.

国家自然科学基金资助项目(72274213)

王建良, 范静静. 统一框架下不同净零氢气生产途径成本比较研究. 煤炭经济研究. 2025, 45(2): 153-160

WANG Jianliang, FAN Jingjing. The comparative cost analysis of various net-zero hydrogen production pathways under a unified framework. Coal Economic Research. 2025, 45(2): 153-160