1.State Key Laboratory for Gas Disaster Monitoring and Emergency Technology,Chongqing ,China;2.Chongqing Research Institute,China Coal Technology Engineering Group,Chongqing ,China

为了解决阳泉矿区高产高效矿井在煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测方面存在的预测指标不全面、不连续、针对性不强、准确性不高等问题，通过对试验矿井瓦斯地质、瓦斯涌出、矿压监测等海量现场数据的深度挖掘，建立了一套远场与近场相结合的两级煤与瓦斯突出动态预测方法，将宏观瓦斯地质量化评级技术与工作面实时预测技术进行了有效融合，并基于GIS平台开发了配套的煤与瓦斯突出预测软件系统。该技术已在阳泉矿区新景矿、新元矿、五矿、平舒矿、开元矿及寺家庄矿等矿井进行了现场应用，应用效果表明：该技术大幅提升了突出预测的准确性与超前性，多次准确捕捉工作面实际突出危险性，并且超前钻屑指标法预测1～2 d；而且，该技术以全新的预测方法为支撑，借助地理信息与计算机技术，实现了突出危险性的快速辨识与动态预测，缓解了高产高效矿井瓦斯防治压力。

In order to solve the problems of incomplete,discontinuous,weak pertinence and inaccuracy in the prediction of coal and gas outburst risk in high-yield and high-efficiency mines in Yangquan Mining Area,and through the deep excavation of massive field data such as gas geology,gas emission and pressure monitoring in the test mines,this paper established a dynamic prediction method for two stages of coal and gas outburst with the combination of far-field and near-field by which the macroscopic gas geology quantitative grading technology and the real-time prediction technology of working face are effectively integrated,and based on the GIS platform,a computer software system for the prediction of coal and gas outburst is developed.The technology has been applied in Xinjing Mine,Xinyuan Mine,No.5 Mine,Pingshu Mine,Kaiyuan Mine and Sijiazhuang Mine in Yangquan Mining Area,and the application results show that the technology greatly improves the accuracy and advance of gas outburst prediction,for it accurately captures the actual outburst danger of working face many times,and predicts 1～2 days before cutting index method;furthermore,the technology is supported by brand-new forecasting methods,and with the help of geographic information and computer technology,and realizes rapid identification and dynamic prediction of outburst danger,and alleviates the pressure of gas prevention and control in high-yield and high-efficiency mines.