为了更合理评价矿井煤层冲击危险性，减少不同指标之间的相互影响，避免造成评价结果的不准确，应用模糊综合评价模型对矿井煤层进行冲击危险性综合评价，提出了基于层次分析法的矿井煤层冲击危险性模糊综合评价模型；得到了基于层次分析法的矿井煤层冲击危险性影响因素，即：开采深度、冲击倾向性、煤层顶底板性质、地质构造、开采技术；确定了评价因素集，建立了模糊综合评价关系矩阵，进行了模糊综合评价，创建了矿井煤层冲击危险性模糊综合评价模型；最后对矿井煤层冲击危险性做出无冲击危险性、弱冲击危险性、〖JP〗中等冲击危险性和强冲击危险性的定量评价，提高了评价结果的精确度。以内蒙古某矿评价应用为例，选取2-1煤层进行模糊综合评价，通过应用基于层次分析法的矿井煤层冲击危险性模糊综合评价模型，得出2-1煤层最大隶属度指数x=0.43，评价结果为中等冲击危险性，与采用综合指数法评价得到的结果一致，表明了该模型可以用于评价矿井煤层冲击危险性。应用该模型在对矿井煤层进行模糊综合评价时，更注重各影响因素之间的相互关系对结果的影响，因而得到的评价结果更合理。研究为矿井煤层冲击危险性模糊综合评价研究提出一种新的评价角度。

In order to evaluate the coal seam bump risk more reasonably, reduce the mutual influence between different indicators, and avoid inaccurate evaluation results, a comprehensive evaluation model of coal mine seam bump risk using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was proposed, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of coal seam bump risk based on the analytic hierarchy process was proposed. The influence factors of coal seam bump risk based on analytic hierarchy process was obtained, namely: mining depth, impact propensity, coal roof and floor properties, geological structure, mining technology. The evaluation factor set was determined, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation relation matrix was established, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was carried out, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of mine coal seam impact risk was created; finally, no impact risk, weak impact risk, moderate impact risk and moderate impact risk were made for coal seam impact risk.The quantitative evaluation of the risk improves the accuracy of the evaluation results.Taking a mine evaluation application in Inner Mongolia as an example, the No.2-1 coal seam was selected for fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. By applying the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of mine coal seam risk based on analytic hierarchy process, the maximum membership index x=0.43 of No.2-1 coal seam was obtained. The evaluation result is moderate impact risk, which is consistent with the result obtained by the comprehensive index method, indicating that the model can be used to evaluate the impact risk of coal seams in mines. When this model is used in fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of coal seams in mines, more attention is paid to the influence of the interrelationship among the various influencing factors on the results. Therefore, the evaluation results obtained are more reasonable and consistent with the actual situation. The research puts forward a new evaluation angle for the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of coal seam impact hazard.

0 引言
1 模糊综合评价模型的建立
2 矿井煤层冲击危险性模糊综合评价
2.1 影响因素的确定
2.1.1 开采深度
2.1.2 冲击倾向性
2.1.3 煤层顶底板性质
2.1.4 地质构造
2.1.5 开采技术
2.2 确定评价因素集
2.3 确定评价集
2.4 模糊评价中的多层次分析
2.5 确定各级评价因素的权重
2.6 建立模糊关系矩阵
3 工程实例分析
4 结论