碳达峰碳中和目标已上升为国家战略，相关路线图、时间表和政策措施正在制订和落地实施，将推进经济社会广泛而深刻的系统性变革。基于我国资源禀赋特征和现阶段经济社会发展实际，短期内仍离不开煤炭。科学研判碳达峰碳中和目标下我国能源消费结构和煤炭消费演变趋势，采取正确的应对措施，是实现碳达峰碳中和、能源安全稳定供应双重目标的客观要求。分析了美国碳达峰前后现代化进程、能源消费、碳排放强度等基本特征和变化规律，提出我国能源优化发展的三大路径，即持续提高能源效率，减少能源消费；大力发展新能源，优化电力结构；大力发展CO2能源化资源化新技术，推进CO2再利用；增强能源自给能力，保障能源安全。研判了我国能源消费格局演变趋势及不同时段煤炭消费规模，即我国能源消费格局演变分为煤炭由基础能源（2021—2030年）—保障能源（2031—2050年）—支撑能源（2051—2060年）、新能源对应由补充能源—替代能源—主体能源的3个阶段，新能源在能源消费结构中的占比分别为15%~29%,30%~49%,50%~80%。即使全面实现了碳中和，仍需要煤炭作为电力调峰、碳质还原剂和保障能源安全的兜底能源（15亿~12亿t/a）。阐述了碳中和目标下，我国煤炭行业将迎来的三大机遇，即实现煤炭高质量发展的机遇、煤炭升级高技术产业的机遇、煤炭抢占新能源主阵地的机遇。

The carbon peak and carbon neutral target has been elevated to a national strategy,and relevant road-maps,timetables,policies,and measures are being formulated and implemented,which will promote some extensive and profound systemic changes in the economy and society.Coal is still indispensable in the short term based on the characteristics of China’s resource endowment and the reality of current economic and social development.It is an objective requirement for achieving the dual goals of carbon peaking,carbon neutrality,and energy security and stable supply to scientifically study the evolution trend of China’s energy consumption structure and coal consumption under the goal of carbon neutrality,and take correct response measures.Firstly,the basic characteristics and changing patterns of the modernization process,energy consumption,and other aspects in the United States before and after the carbon peak was analyzed.Three major paths for the development of energy optimization in China were put forward,namely,continuously improving energy efficiency and reducing energy consumption,vigorously developing new energy sources and optimizing power structure,vigorously developing new technologies for CO2 energy and resource utilization,and promote the reuse of CO2,enhancing energy self-sufficiency and ensuring energy security.Then,after considering the trend of economic,social,and energy development in China,China’s energy consumption pattern would go through three stages.The coal would be as fundamental energy first,then guaranteed energy,and finally play a supporting role.The new energy resources would be as supplementary energy first,then alternative energy,and finally become the major energy.The authors predicted that the proportion of new energy resources in the primary energy consumption structure would be 15% to 29%,30% to 49%,and 50% to 80% respectively.Even if China achieves a carbon neutrality,it would still need coal for carrying out power peak shaving,producing carbon reductant and chemical raw materials,and ensuring energy security (1.5 billion to 1.2 billion t/a).Finally,the goal of carbon-neutral would bring three major development opportunities to the coal industry:returning to high-quality development,becoming a high-tech industry,and realizing coupling development with new energy resources under the carbon neutral target.

1 碳达峰前后美国现代化进程与能源消费特征

   1.1 碳达峰前期（1949—1999年）

   1.2 碳达峰平台期（2000—2008年）

   1.3 碳达峰后期（2009年至今）

2 碳中和目标下我国能源发展路径及消费结构

   2.1 我国能源需求总量变化趋势

   2.2 碳中和目标下我国能源发展路径

   2.3 碳中和目标下煤炭消费主要领域

   2.4 碳中和目标下能源消费格局

3 碳中和目标下煤炭行业发展机遇

   3.1 回归高质量发展的机遇

   3.2 煤炭行业升级高技术产业的机遇

   3.3 抢占新能源主阵地的机遇

4 结论与展望