黄河流域下游煤矿区多属于高潜水位矿区，煤炭开采引发地表塌陷，积水严重。同时存在耕地面积持续消退、生态失衡等问题，严重影响资源可持续利用和社会经济发展。在我国提出生态文明建设和粮食安全保障的重点时期，亟需揭示矿区耕地资源的动态演变规律和解决采煤塌陷区土地资源利用与保护问题。通过以黄河流域下游“煤-粮”复合区山东济宁市为研究对象，基于概率积分法预测2019—2030年采煤塌陷地扩张以及土地资源损毁情况，结合形态学空间格局分析(MSPA)选取1 pixel和2 pixel宽度阈值，通过斑块重要度指数(IdPC)分别提取不同阈值下研究区内集中连片且面积较大的耕地重要核心区，采用整体连通性指数(IIIC)定量分析2018—2030年耕地核心区因塌陷损毁导致的耕地破碎化动态演变过程。结果表明:① 济宁市2018—2030年间采煤塌陷区不断扩张，到2030年预测采煤塌陷区50 613.52 hm²，损毁土地中耕地面积32 603.65 hm²，且东滩煤矿损毁耕地最为严重;② MSPA分析中边缘宽度阈值设定将会导致斑块数量以及内部连接度显著变化，在1 pixel 阈值下表征塌陷导致的细小耕地破碎化作用明显;③ 未来10 a济宁市采煤塌陷造成耕地面积持续减少，耕地重要核心区域逐渐消退，煤矿区内耕地呈现破碎零散的分布状态，且小尺度的煤矿区耕地面积变化，导致周围大片耕地连接度降低;④ 不同资源赋存、生产利用状况不同，导致不同煤矿耕地破碎化特征明显差异。其中岱庄生建煤矿、北徐楼煤矿耕地平均IIIC值变化较大，分别下降0.65和0.64;高庄煤矿、横河煤矿、济宁二号煤矿、三河口煤矿和杨庄煤矿平均IIIC值分别下降0.58，0.55，0.55，0.51，0.51，表明未来10 a矿区内的耕地连接度大幅下降、破碎化程度加剧。综上所述，塌陷区耕地的减少在一定程度上降低了市域范围耕地连接度，因此在今后土地复垦工作中，各煤矿区需要强化耕地复垦的力度，从而减小对农业生产的负面影响。

The coal mining areas in the Lower Yellow River Basin are mostly high water table mining areas.Coal mining leads to surface subsidence and serious water accumulation.At the same time,there are problems such as the continuous decline of a cultivated land area and ecological imbalance,which seriously affect the sustainable utilization of resources,and social and economic construction.In the key period of ecological protection and food security,it is urgent to reveal the dynamic change law of cultivated land resources and solve the problem of land resources utilization and protection in coal mining subsidence areas.In this study,Jining mining area in the “coal grain” composite area in the Lower Yellow River Basin is taken as the research object.Based on the probability integral method,the subsidence land expansion and land resource damage in Jining mining area from 2019 to 2030 are predicted.Combined with the morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA),1 pixel and 2 pixel width thresholds were selected,the patch importance index (IdPC) was used to extract the large and concentrated core areas of cultivated land in the study area under different thresholds.Finally,the dynamic evolutionary process of cultivated land fragmentation caused by collapse damage in the core area of cultivated land from 2018 to 2030 was quantitatively analyzed by the integral index of connectivity (IIIC).The results show that:① the coal mining subsidence area in Jining City will continue to expand from 2018 to 2030.By 2030,the coal mining subsidence area is predicted to be 50 613.52 hm²,and the cultivated land area of damaged land is 32 603.65 hm2,and Dongtan coal mine is the most seriously damaged cultivated land.② In MSPA analysis,the threshold setting of edge width will lead to significant changes in the number of patches and internal connectivity,and the fragmentation of small cultivated land caused by collapse is obvious at 1 pixel threshold.③ In the next 10 years,the coal mining sub-sidence in Jining city will cause the continuous decrease of cultivated land area,and the important core area of cultivated land will gradually fade away.The cultivated land in the mining area will be fragmented and scattered,and the small-scale change of cultivated land area in the coal mining area will lead to the decrease of cultivated land connectivity in large areas around.④ Different coal mining areas have different resource occurrence,production and utilization status,which leads to obvious differences in the fragmentation characteristics of cultivated land in different coal mines.The average IIIC value of cultivated land in Daizhuang Shengjian coal mine and Beixulou coal mine decreases by 0.65 and 0.64 respectively.The average IIIC value of Gaozhuang coal mine,Henghe coal mine,Jining No.2 coal mine,Sanhekou coal mine and Yangzhuang coal mine decreases by 0.58,0.55,0.55,0.51 and 0.51 respectively,which indicate that the cultivated land connectivity in the mining area decreases significantly and the degree of fragmentation increases in the next 10 years.In general,the reduction of cultivated land in the subsidence areas has reduced the connectivity of cultivated land in the city to a certain extent.Therefore,in the future land reclamation work,the coal mining areas need to strengthen the intensity of cultivated land reclamation to reduce the negative impact on agricultural production.

1 数据与方法

   1.1 研究区概况

   1.2 数据来源与处理

   1.3 研究方法

2 结果与分析

   2.1 济宁市2019—2030年采煤塌陷预测及土地损毁分析

   2.2 基于MSPA的耕地核心区识别及重要度、连接度分析

3 讨论

4 结论