双碳目标是我国对世界的庄严承诺，煤化工产业属于高碳排放类产业，探索低碳化发展路径迫在眉睫。以碳交易价格100元/t为基准，碳交易外购比例取5%、20%、50%三种情景，分析了节能减排、绿氢替代、绿电替代、原料低碳化、产品方案优化、CO2末端利用等低碳路径的技术经济性，分析认为绿电加电驱方案单位产品的成本变动较小，是较经济合理的低碳方案，当前建议优先选取绿电加电驱方案；其次是节能减排方案，应在项目前期进行全项目优化。产品方案优化也是减排增效的有效途径，建议发展适合煤化工工艺的含氧化合物等产品，但还需通过技术创新进一步降低成本。由于当前绿电价格较高，经济性较差，绿氢方案可作为储备技术先行试点。原料低碳化方案取决于天然气供应的可靠性以及国家政策。CO2末端利用目前经济性不佳，建议进一步示范CCUS等利用路径，提高整体经济效益。

The Double Carbon goal is China′s solemn commitment to the world. Coal chemical industry belongs to the high carbon emissionclass industry. It is urgent to explore the low-carbon development path. Based on the carbon trading price of 100 yuan/ton and the outsourcing proportion of carbon trading of 5%, 20% and 50% as three scenarios, this paper analyzed the technical economy of low-carbon paths such as energy conservation and emission reduction, green hydrogen substitution, green electricity substitution, low-carbon raw materials, product scheme optimization and end use of carbon dioxide, respectively. The analysis shows that the cost change per unit product of green electricity plus electric drive scheme is small, which is a more economical and reasonable low-carbon scheme. At present, it is recommended to give priority to the green power on drive scheme. The second is the energy conservation and emission reduction scheme, which should be optimized in the early stage of the project. Product scheme optimization is also an effective way to reduce emission and increase efficiency. It is suggested to develop oxygenated compounds and other products suitable for coal chemical process, but the cost needs to be further reduced through technological innovation. Due to the high price of green electricity and poor economy, the green hydrogen scheme can be firstly used as the pilot of reserve technology. The raw material low-carbon scheme depends on the reliability of natural gas supply and national policies. At present, the economy of carbon dioxide end-use is poor. It is suggested to further demonstrate the utilization paths such as CCUS to improve the overall economic benefits.

0 引言

1 评价的边界条件

   1.1 基准情景

   1.2 碳交易价格的选取

   1.3 绿电价格的选取

   1.4 绿氢价格的选取

   1.5 其他低碳原料的选取

2 不同减碳路径的技术经济评价

   2.1 节能降耗

   2.2 与绿氢耦合

   2.3 与CH4耦合

   2.4 电驱+绿电

   2.5 产品方案优化

   2.6 CO2封存和利用

3 结论和建议