随双碳目标提出，我国需要加速构建安全经济低碳的电力系统，然而高比例火电装机CO2排放量较大，大规模可再生能源装机会导致电力系统可靠性变差，接入储能和碳捕集设备可在一定程度上兼顾碳排放及系统可靠性的问题，但同时也会导致发电成本升高。基于某能源基地分析了不同可再生能源装机比例下系统的碳排放强度及系统可靠性指标，明确了不同技术路线下系统满足碳排放及可靠性约束时的碳捕集量及所需储能输出功率，对比了统一碳排放及可靠性指标后的系统经济性。结果表明，通过生物质耦合碳捕集技术，可实现电力系统的零碳排放甚至负碳排放。储能可有效提高系统可靠性，对于总装机5 000 MW系统，可再生能源装机比例每升高20%，需接入功率850～875 MW的储能设备，以满足系统可靠性要求。随着碳排放要求提高，系统发电成本不断升高，在满足碳排放和可靠性约束的前提下，60%可再生能源装机比例具有最高的经济性。

With the proposal of the dual carbon goal, it is necessary to accelerate the construction of a safe, economical and low-carbon power system in China. However, a high proportion of thermal power installed capacity has high CO2 emissions, and large-scale renewable energy installations will lead to poor reliability of the power system. The integration of energy storage and carbon capture equipment can take into account the issues of carbon emissions and system reliability to a certain extent, but at the same time, it will also lead to an increase in the cost of power generation. Based on an energy base, the carbon emission intensity and reliability indicators of the system under different renewable energy installed proportions were analyzed, and the carbon capture amount and the required amount of carbon capture were given when the system met the carbon emission and reliability constraints under different technical routes. The system economy after unified carbon emission and reliability indicators was compared. The results show that through biomass coupled carbon capture technology, zero carbon emission or even negative carbon emission can be achieved in the power system. Energy storage can effectively improve system reliability. For a system with a total installed capacity of 5 000 MW, for every 20% increase in the proportion of installed renewable energy, energy storage equipment with a power of 850-875 MW needs to be connected to meet the reliability requirements of the system. As carbon emission requirements increase, the cost of system power generation continues to rise, and the system has the highest economy at 60% of installed renewable energy under the premise of meeting carbon emission and reliability constraints. 

0 引言

1 多能互补系统设定

   1.1 能源基地参数

   1.2 碳排放和可靠性约束

2 评估方法

   2.1 电力系统碳排放评估方法

   2.2 电力系统可靠性评估方法

3 算例分析

   3.1 技术路径

   3.2 可靠性分析

   3.3 碳排放分析

   3.4 不同路径的经济分析

4 结论