党的二十大报告重申，到2035年人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平(简称“中等收入”)，经济规模的快速扩张，势必会拉动能源需求、增加能源消费，给能源供应带来挑战，而“双碳”目标促使能耗“双控”转向碳排放“双控”(简称新“双控”)，将使控碳举措更加精准，低碳转型压力增加。在“中等收入”和新“双控”背景下，如何立足以煤为主的基本国情，统筹保障能源供应和低碳转型，把握煤炭行业发展的新机遇，赋能煤炭行业转型升级和高质量发展，将是一个充满挑战而又无法回避的重大时代课题。通过回顾煤炭工业对于我国国民经济发展的历史性贡献，结合我国资源禀赋特征和现阶段经济社会发展实际，认为煤炭在未来仍将发挥能源保障作用，支持实现“中等收入”目标，并深入分析了煤炭发展过程中存在的安全、生态以及智能化程度低的难题。揭示了“中等收入”与新“双控”背景下煤炭行业面临的新挑战主要为保障能源供应要求提升、低碳转型压力加大，测算了电力耗煤量在不同双碳时期的变化规律：电力耗煤量将在2030年为20亿t，而到2060年降至5.0亿t，降幅达到75%，极大冲击煤炭销量，给煤炭行业发展带来巨大的潜在风险。针对性地提出了不同双碳时期煤炭行业发展的新机遇：目前碳达峰时期，推动保供和低碳协同发展，应把握煤炭与煤电一体化、煤矿与循环经济工业园区一体化、矿区修复与生态协调发展、煤炭反哺教育战略、煤炭机械化开采与智能化开采耦合、瓦斯资源化与能源化利用等机遇，为实现“中等收入”目标提供能源支撑，在保供中实现高质量发展，为绿色低碳转型发展提供基础；在碳达峰–碳中和时期，大力发展煤炭与现代煤化工耦合、煤炭能源与新能源耦合等产业，在高质量发展基础上实现绿色低碳转型的跨越发展，助力碳中和目标的早日实现，以期为我国能源和煤炭相关决策、政策制定提供参考。

The CPC's Report on the 20th National Congress reiterated that per capita GDP will reach the level of a moderately developed country(referred to as middle income) by 2035, and the rapid expansion of economic scale is bound to drive energy demand and  increase energy consumption, posing challenges to energy supply. The “dual carbon” target promotes the “dual control” of energy consumption to the “dual control” of carbon emissions (referred to as the new “dual control”), which will make the carbon control measures more accurate and increase the pressure of low-carbon transition. Under the background of “middle income” and new “dual control”, it will be a challenging  and unavoidable major subject of times to coordinate energy supply and low-carbon transformation, grasp the new opportunities of coal industry development, and enable the transformation and upgrading of the coal industry and high-quality development based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal. By reviewing the historical contribution of the coal industry to the development of the Chinese national economy, combined with the characteristics of China’s resource endowment and the reality of economic and social development at the present stage, it is believed that coal will still play an energy security role in the future and support the realization of the “middle income” goal. The problems of safety, ecology, and low intelligence in the process of coal development were deeply analyzed, and it was revealed that the new challenges facing the coal industry under the background of “middle income” and new “dual control” are mainly increased requirements for energy supply and increasing pressure of low-carbon transition. The change law of coal power consumption in different two-carbon periods was calculated: coal power consumption will be 2 billion tons in 2030, and will drop to 500 million tons in 2060, a decrease of 75%, which greatly impacts coal sales and brings huge potential risks to the development of the coal industry. New opportunities for the development of the coal industry in different periods of dual carbon were put forward. From now to the peak period of carbon emissions, the focus will be on promoting the coordinated development of energy conservation and low-carbon. Opportunities should be seized, such as the integration of coal and coal electricity, the integration of coal mine and circular economy industrial park, coordinated development of mining area restoration and ecology, coal feeding education strategy, coupling of mechanized coal mining and intelligent mining, resource utilization and energy utilization of coalbed methane, etc., to provide energy support for achieving the goal of “middle income”, and achieve high-quality development in the guarantee of supply, and provide a basis for green and low-carbon transition development. In the period from carbon peak to carbon neutral, the coupled development of coal and modern coal chemical industry, coal energy and new energy, will be vigorously developed to realize the leapfrog development of green and low-carbon transition baed on high-quality development and help the early realization of the goal of carbon neutral.

0 引言
1 煤炭对我国经济社会发展的历史贡献
2 煤炭行业面临新挑战
2.1 实现中等收入的新挑战-保障能源供应要求提升
2.2 新“双控”政策的新挑战–低碳转型压力加大
2.2.1 碳排放主要来源于煤炭利用过程，开发过程排放量较少
2.2.2 煤电减排首当其冲，煤炭销路将遭受重创
3 煤炭行业新机遇
3.1 把握碳中和投资机遇，推动煤炭产业升级
3.2 煤炭与煤电一体化，为绿色低碳转型提供能源安全保障
3.3 煤炭与现代煤化工协调发展，促进煤炭原料化材料化高端低碳发展
3.4 煤炭能源与新能源耦合发展，促进绿色低碳转型
3.5 煤矿与循环经济工业园区一体化开发，实现共伴生资源联合开发
3.6 矿区修复与生态协调发展，践行绿色发展
3.7 推动煤炭反哺教育战略，谱写煤炭清洁低碳高效利用新篇章
3.8 煤炭机械化开采与智能化开采耦合，实现安全高效低碳发展
3.9 煤炭瓦斯资源化开发与能源化利用，推动瓦斯减排
4 结语及建议