新能源发电制氢技术不断成熟,制氢成本直接影响氢能产业商业化推广与应用｡针对电解水制氢技术方案投入与运营成本变化,基于新能源产业风光发电成本视角构建了碱性(ALK)电解槽+风电､质子交换膜(PEM)电解槽+风电､碱性(ALK)电解槽+光伏发电､质子交换膜(PEM)电解槽+光伏发电4种电解水制氢组合方案的成本动态测算模型,并通过敏感性分析研究了相关因素对制氢成本的影响｡结果表明:4组方案制氢成本在研究期内(2017—2020年)分别降低了13.95%､29.22%､19.55%和31.03%,2020年制氢成本分别为17.90､28.27､21.54和32.23元/kg,而能耗和发电成本是降低4种方案制氢成本最具潜力的影响因素｡同时,对比分析了其他电源及传统化石能源制氢等不同制氢技术工艺的经济性,不同制氢情景下,制氢成本由低到高分别为煤制氢､工业副产氢､天然气制氢､煤制氢+碳捕获收集(CCS)､ALK风电制氢､甲醇制氢､ALK 光伏制氢､ALK谷电制氢､PEM光伏制氢和PEM谷电制氢｡ 

With the gradual maturity of hydrogen production from new energy generation, the cost of hydrogen production directly affects the commercialization and application of hydrogen energy industry. Based on the changes of input and operating cost of water electrolysis hydrogen production technology, a dynamic cost calculation model was constructed for four combined schemes of electrolytic water hydrogen production, including alkaline water electrolysis cell (ALK) + wind power, proton exchange membrane water electrolysis cell (PEM) + wind power, alkaline water electrolysis cell (ALK) + photovoltaic (PV) power and proton exchange membrane water electrolysis cell (PEM) + photovoltaic (PV) power, from the respective of new energy generation cost. And the impact of relevant factors on the cost of hydrogen production was studied through sensitivity analysis. The results show that the cost of hydrogen production of four combination schemes reduces by 13.95%, 29.22%, 19.55% and 31.03%, respectively, during the research period (2017—2020), and the cost of hydrogen production in 2020 is 17.90, 28.27, 21.54 and 32.23 yuan/kg, respectively. Power consumption and power generation cost are the most potential factors to reduce the cost of hydrogen production in the four schemes. Through the comparative analysis of the economy of different hydrogen production technologies such as other power sources and traditional petrochemical energy, it is found that in different hydrogen production scenarios, the hydrogen production technologies from low to high cost are hydrogen production from coal, industrial by-product, natural gas, coal + Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), ALK wind power, methanol, ALK PV, ALK valley electricity, PEM PV and PEM valley electricity.

0 引言

1 研究方法与数据来源

   1.1 年度行业发电成本估算方法

   1.2 基于成本分解法的电解水制氢成本测算方法

   1.3 基于学习曲线的技术参数估算

2 结果与讨论

   2.1 风电和光伏发电的成本估算

   2.2 电解水技术的制氢成本构成

   2.3 多情景制氢工艺成本比较

   2.4 制氢成本敏感性分析

3 结论