Center for Sustainable Tourism Development, Beijing Institute of Petrochemical Technology
China Waterborne Transport Research Institute

碳中和对我国农村能源革命和能源转型提出了加速发展的更紧迫要求，煤炭退出农村生活能源系统是大势所趋，关键在于如何有序、有效、公平、高质量地退出。基于农村生活能源全品类谱系的消费量与碳排放，回顾评估1949年以来煤炭在我国农村生活能源系统中的作为、地位与影响；基于北京农村调查分析政策性退出煤炭的问题与挑战；进一步结合有效能需求评价与预测，系统分析农村生活能源系统碳中和转型的韧性、经济性和差异化瓶颈，预判煤炭在未来农村生活能源系统中的地位与贡献，探索煤炭退出机制。主要结论：① 我国农村人均生活能耗及有效能需求均处于增长通道，全电力模式下未来农村居民生活用电峰值预计人均5 000 kW·h。② 长远看，农村生活能源电气化将是以碳中和、可再生、市场化为核心特征的电气化。煤炭退出机制重在推动农村生活能源系统朝“清洁”能源转型，是“煤炭替代”与“替代煤炭”的有机综合。在农村绿色能源市场还没有充分发展之前，煤炭依然是确保农村能源安全的首选“压舱石”。③ 基于区域差异，提出跨越煤炭、煤炭替代(煤炭替代生物质，清洁煤升级)与替代煤炭(自愿退煤，强制禁煤)3类共5种能源转型路径，分类施策，组合发展。未来我国农村居民生活将享有一个富有韧性与公平性的现代化碳中和能源系统。

Carbon neutrality target triggers the acceleration of China's rural energy revolution and energy transition. It is an irreversible trend that coal will phase out Rural Household Energy Mix (RHEM) in the long run. Problem is how coal will phase down and phase out in an orderly, effective, fair and high-quality way. National rural household energy consumption of all types is reviewed and related carbon emission accounted to manifest the evolvement of coal’s role, status and impacts in China’s RHEM since 1949. Household-level survey carried out in rural Beijing has discovered problems and challenges in the phasing out coal due to policy enforcement. Exergy is further assessed and predicted. The future role and contribution of coal among RHEM is identified for outlining coal’s phase out path by considering the resilience, economy and differentiated bottlenecks of carbon-neutral RHEM from the three-dimensional perspective of exergy, base energy context and comparative comprehensive cost-benefit calculation of energy substitution. The conclusions are as follows: ① Per capita energy consumption and exergy demand will continue to increase in coming years, and the per capita electricity consumption peak in a full electrification mode of RHEM is conservatively estimated to be about 5 000 kW·h. ② In the long run, rural household energy electrification has the characters of carbon neutrality, renewability and marketization. The coal revolution in RHEM, pursuing an improved cleaner and affordable energy pattern, consists of sustainable energy replacing coal and coal replacing biomass fuels. Before rural green energy market fully developed, coal is still the “ballast” for rural energy security. ③ In accordance with regional differences, it is wise to resort to five sub-path combinations belonging to three coal phaseout paths, that is, coal neutrality (improved stove technology and let the coal be), coal substitution (including coal replacement of primary biomass; clean coal upgrading) and coal substituted (inclusive of voluntary and mandatory phaseout of coal). It is anticipated that rural residents will enjoy a modern carbon-neutral energy system with resilience and fairness in future China.

曹淑艳，徐勤飞，张东玮，等. 煤炭在中国农村生活能源中的利用与退出路径[J]. 煤炭学报，2023，48(7)：2668−2681.

CAO Shuyan，XU Qinfei，ZHANG Dongwei，et al. Future of coal in rural household energy mix in china[J]. Journal of China Coal Society，2023，48(7)：2668−2681.