高潜水位矿区采矿活动及城镇化发展会导致土地利用类型明显变化，进而影响矿区的固碳能力。采用潘谢矿区2002—2021年5期土地利用数据，利用FLUS (Future Land Use Simulation)模型，选取了采矿、社会经济和气候环境等方面数据作为驱动因子，分别预测了自然发展和生态保护两种情景下2028年土地利用变化，再结合InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs)模型，计算了潘谢矿区2002—2021年的历史碳储量以及2028年不同情景下的未来碳储量，并对潘谢矿区碳储量的时空变化特征进行了分析。结果表明：① 2002—2021年潘谢矿区土地利用变化表现为耕地不断减少，湿地和建筑用地持续增加，其中耕地减少了147.93 km²，湿地和建筑用地分别增加了71.01 km²和75.76 km²。在此期间，潘谢矿区碳储量减少了1.62×10⁵ t，减少幅度为3.83%，其中在2018—2021年碳储量下降最快。②预测结果显示，2028年2种情景下研究区内土地利用变化均为湿地和建筑用地持续增加，耕地不断减少。但相较于自然发展情景，生态保护情景下矿区内耕地受到保护，面积有所增加，湿地和建筑用地的增长减缓。与2021年相比，自然发展情景下的碳储量减少了0.74×10⁵ t，生态保护情景下的碳储量减少了0.53×10⁵ t。研究结果表明，受采煤沉陷和城镇发展影响，沉陷湿地和建筑用地扩张导致耕地减少是碳储量下降的主要原因，采取生态保护措施能够在一定程度上减缓碳储量的下降。

Mining activities and urbanisation in high dive mining areas can lead to significant changes in land use types, which in turn affect the carbon sequestration capacity of mining areas. Based on the land use data of Panxie mining area from 2002 to 2021, and used the FLUS (Future Land Use Simulation) model to predict land use changes in 2028 under two scenarios: natural development and ecological conservation, using mining, socio-economic and climatic data as drivers, and then The historical carbon stocks in the Panshet mine area from 2002 to 2021 and the future carbon stocks in 2028 under different scenarios were calculated by combining the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) model, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of the carbon stocks in the Panxie mine area were analysed. The spatial and temporal variability of carbon stocks in the Panxie mine was also analysed. The results show that: ① from 2002 to 2021, land use changes in the Panxai mining area show a continuous decrease in arable land and a continuous increase in wetland and building land, with a decrease of 147.93 km² in arable land and an increase of 71.01 km² and 75.76 km² in wetland and building land, respectively. during this period, the carbon stock in the Panxai mining area decreases from 1.62×10⁵ t, a decrease of 3.83%, with the fastest decrease in carbon reserves from 2018 to 2021. ② The predicted results show that the land use changes in the study area under both scenarios in 2028 are a continuous increase in wetlands and building land, and a continuous decrease in arable land. However, compared to the natural development scenario, the ecological conservation scenario protects and increases the area of arable land in the mine area, while the growth of wetlands and building land slows down. Compared with 2021, the carbon stock in the natural development scenario decreases by 0.74×10⁵ t and the ecological conservation scenario decreases by 0.53×10⁵ t. The results of the study indicate that the decrease in arable land due to sinking water and the expansion of construction land is the main reason for the decrease in carbon stock due to the influence of coal mining subsidence and urban development, and that the adoption of ecological conservation measures can slow down the decrease in carbon stock to a certain extent. Ecological conservation measures can slow down the decline of carbon stocks to a certain extent.