State Key Laboratory of Water Resource Protection and Utilization in Coal Mining,National Institute of Clean-and-Low-Carbon Energy

我国要实现“双碳”目标的核心措施是进行煤电革命,要积极发展可再生能源及核电,实现规模化和安全稳定供应;逐步减退化石能源,有序做好煤炭减量替代。阐述了我国能源生产结构、能源生产安全形势、煤电共生发展趋势,并采用安全可靠、经济可行、绿色低碳三要素对当前煤电结构进行了分析。结果表明,煤电革命的前半场煤炭将依然是我国的主体能源,发挥能源安全基石作用,后半场煤炭是主要能源,发挥战略主动兜底作用。总结分析了我国构建的现代能源体系,预计2060年,煤炭产量为20亿~25亿t,约四分之一产量用于煤电(5亿~10亿t),发挥调峰和应急备用功能;届时煤电比重完成置换(30%,70%),电力结构比例预计为煤电30%、水电20%、风电20%、核电20%、太阳能10%。

In China,the core strategy to achieve the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutral is carrying out the coal to electricity revolution. It should actively developing renewable energy and nuclear power to achieve large-scale, secure and stable supplies, gradually reducing fossil fuels and replacing coal in an orderly manner. This study expounds the energy production structure, energy production safety situation and the development trend of coal and electricity symbiosis in China, and analyzes the current coal to electricity structure with three elements of safety, reliability, economic feasibility and green and low carbon. The results show that in the first half of the coal to electricity revolution, coal will remain the primary energy source in our country and play a cornerstone role for energy security, while in the second half, coal will be the main energy and play a strategic role. The paper concludes with an analysis of the modern energy system constructed in China, projecting that by 2060, coal production will be approximately 2. 0 to 2. 5 billion tons, with around a quarter used for electricity generation ( 0. 5 billion to 1. 0 billion tons), which will play the functions of peak-shaving and emergency backup. At that time, the proportion of coal to electricity will be replaced (30%,70%), and the proportion of power structure will be 30% coal, 20% hydropower, 20% wind power, 20% nuclear power and 10% solar energy.

国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目(72088101);国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(52004012);国家能源集团科技创新项目(GJNY-21-44)

刘新杰,杨英明,赵勇强. “双碳”目标下煤电革命的路径目标[J]. 矿业安全与环保,2024,51(1):14-18.

LIU Xinjie,YANG Yingming,ZHAO Yongqiang. The path of coal to electricity revolution under the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutral[J]. Mining Safety & Environmental Protection,2024,51(1):14-18.