College of Economics and Management, Taiyuan University of Technology

为深入研究碳排放“双控”背景下的产业减排结构和关键路径,基于非竞争型投入产出表,通过构建SPA模型,从终端需求、行业结构、生产层级和传导路径4个方面进行分析,识别碳排放变化趋势并筛选减排贡献最大的关键碳减排路径。结果表明:固定资本形成总额、居民消费支出和出口是实现碳减排的最主要需求,其中居民消费支出引发的碳排放路径具有更大的减排潜力;碳排放“双控”政策的碳减排作用以间接碳减排为主,且减排效果随着生产层级的增加而逐渐减弱;碳减排贡献程度较高的行业集中于电力、金属冶炼和压延加工业和非金属矿物制品业等传统高耗能行业。因此,为提高碳排放“双控”背景下碳减排举措的有效性和可行性,应充分把握利用减排作用在生产层级和产业链上分布的差异性,发挥终端需求驱动行业间协同减排的作用,针对性地探索差异化碳减排路径。

To delve deeper into the industrial emission reduction structure and key pathways under the background of “double control” ofcarbon emissions, a non-competitive input-output table was utilized. Through the construction of an SPA ( Structural Path Analysis)model, an analysis was conducted from four perspectives: end demand, industry structure, production hierarchy, and transmissionpathways. This analysis aimed to identify trends in carbon emissions and pinpoint the most significant pathways contributing to emissionreduction. The findings reveal that total fixed capital formation, household consumption expenditure, and exports are the primary driversfor achieving carbon reduction. Among these, pathways triggered by household consumption expenditure exhibit greater potential foremission reduction. The efficacy of carbon reduction policies under the double control framework predominantly relies on indirect carbonreduction, with the reduction effect gradually diminishing as the production hierarchy increases. Industries contributing significantly tocarbon emission reduction are concentrated in traditional high-energy-consuming sectors such as power generation, metal smelting androlling processing, and mineral product industries. Therefore, to enhance the effectiveness and feasibility of carbon reduction measuresunder the background of “double control” of carbon emissions, it is crucial to fully comprehend and leverage the differences in emissionreduction effects distributed across production hierarchy and industrial chains. This approach would harness the role of end-demand-drivencollaborative emission reduction among industries, aiming to explore tailored pathways for diversified carbon reduction strategies.

国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心委托课题(RH2100004456)