School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (Beijing)

2013—2018年间,中国化石能源行业(煤炭开采和洗选业,石油和天然气开采业,石油、煤炭及其他燃料加工业,燃气生产和供应业)吸纳就业量减少约1/3。供给侧改革和能源清洁转型被广泛认为是化石能源行业就业萎缩的主导因素,但实际驱动作用尚未得到定量评估。分析了2004—2018年中国化石能源行业就业量变动的影响因素,结果发现:2013年以前,化石能源行业就业需求增长主要是由经济发展驱动;而经济增速放缓带来就业增长量下跌,以至于其不能完全对冲技术进步驱动的就业量下降,是2013—2018年间化石能源行业就业量逆转下降的主要原因之一。这一过程对化石能源行业就业量下降的贡献比例为52%,超过了产业结构转型所贡献的48%。并且单就从业者数量而言,化石能源行业由于产业转型而流出的劳动力能够通过行业间转移,被其他行业重新吸纳;而由于经济增速放缓和技术进步带来的就业增长量下跌是当前中国就业市场的整体趋势,该因素所致的就业压力消解难度可能更大。因此,化石能源行业的就业压力既是经济增速放缓和技术进步“大势所趋”,也是产业结构调整“转型之果”。建议在做好转型过程中就业安置保障工作的同时,针对经济增速放缓和技术进步带来的就业冲击做出积极及时的响应。

From 2013 to 2018, the fossil energy industry in China, encompassing coal mining and washing, oil and natural gas extraction,and the processing of oil, coal, and other fuels, along with gas production and supply, saw a one - third reduction in employmentabsorption. Supply-side reforms and the transition to clean energy are widely considered the leading causes of this employment shrinkage inthe fossil energy sector, though their exact contributory roles have not been quantitatively assessed. This study examines the factorsinfluencing employment changes in China’s fossil energy sector from 2004 to 2018. It finds that prior to 2013, employment growth in thesector was primarily driven by economic development. The subsequent slowdown in economic growth led to a decrease in employmentgrowth, insufficient to offset the job losses driven by technological advancements, marking one of the primary causes of the reversal inemployment trends in the sector from 2013 to 2018. This process accounted for 52% of the employment decline, surpassing the 48%contribution from industrial structural transformation. Moreover, regarding the number of practitioners, labor force outflow from the fossilenergy industry due to industrial transformation could be reabsorbedby other sectors through inter - industry transfer.However, thecurrentoveralltrendinChina ’sjobmarket—decliningemployment growth due to economic growth slowdown and techno⁃logical advancements—may pose greater challenges in alleviatingemployment pressures caused by this factor. This study suggestscomprehensive preparedness for the dual impacts faced by the labormarketinthefossilenergyindustry.Policymakersarerecommended to not only focus on employment placement andsecurity during the transition, but also to engage in proactive and prompt responses to the employment impacts of economic growth slowdownand technological advancements.

国家自然科学基金青年项目(71904201);国家自然科学基金面上项目(72374210);国家自然科学基金-国际(地区)合作与交流项目(T2261129475);中国工程院战略研究与资助重大项目(2023-XBZD-05);中国石油大学(北京)科研基金资助项目(2462023QNXZ013,2462023YQTD002)