Research Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Shanghai Jiao Tong University
School of Mechanical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University

作为我国重要的能源和战略资源基地,内蒙古的产业结构和能源消费结构主要以煤炭为主。然而,高比例的煤炭消费也使内蒙古在实现双碳目标、推进行业转型发展方面面临严峻挑战。在深入分析内蒙古煤炭产业发展现状的基础上,结合内蒙古面临的新形势与新要求,探讨了碳达峰目标下内蒙古煤炭消费总量控制目标,并提出了相应的控煤路径及建议。研究表明,若内蒙古能源相关碳排放要在2030年前实现达峰,则煤炭消费量需稳定在3.2亿~3.4亿tce之间;若控煤减碳工程取得重大成效,可再生能源取得进一步发展,煤炭消费量可降低至2亿tce以下。在煤控情景下,内蒙古的CO2排放将在2032年左右达峰,峰值约9.2亿t;强化煤控情景下,内蒙古的CO2排放达峰时间提前至2025年,峰值约8.1亿t。为实现内蒙古碳达峰目标,需统筹制定煤炭减量发展相关战略规划,制定不同行业差异化管控方案与措施,通过技术创新推进绿色低碳技术的研发与应用,同时建立和完善市场化的调控机制。

As an important center for energy and strategic resources in China, Inner Mongolia’s industrial and energy consumption structureprimarily relies on coal. However, the high proportion of coal consumption poses a significant challenge for Inner Mongolia to achieve its dualcarbon goals and promote industrial transformation and development. Based on an in-depth analysis of Inner Mongolia’s current status of coalindustry development and the new situations and requirements it faces, this article explores the total coal consumption control target under thecarbon peak goal. It also proposes corresponding coal control paths and suggestions. The study reveals that to achieve Inner Mongolia’ senergy-related carbon emissions’ carbon peak goal before 2030, coal consumption needs to stabilize between 320 million to 340 million tonsof standard coal. If significant results in coal control and carbon reduction projects are achieved, and renewable energy develops further, coalconsumption can be reduced to less than 200 million tons of standard coal. Under the coal control scenario, Inner Mongolia’s CO2 emissionswould reach their peak around 2032, with a peak value of about 920 million tons. Moreover, under the strengthened coal control scenario,Inner Mongolia’ s CO2 emissions would reach a peak as early as 2025, with a peak value of about 810 million tons. To achieve InnerMongolia’s carbon peak goal, it is necessary to comprehensively formulate strategic plans for coal reduction and development. Differentiatedcontrol plans and measures should be developed for various industries, and green and low-carbon technologies should be promoted throughtechnological innovation. Additionally, market-oriented regulatory mechanisms must be established and improved.

能源基金会资助项目(G-2204-33733)